[DigitalToday reporter Jinju Hong (홍진주)] An analysis says XRP could top $20 if it reproduces gains recorded in major past rally cycles. Some counterviews also emerged, saying there are limits to applying past gains directly to the current market and that a sharp correction could follow a surge.

Decrpyt, a blockchain media outlet, reported on Sept. 7 (local time) that crypto analyst Egrag suggested further upside potential based on three major past XRP rally cycles.

The past XRP gains used in Egrag’s analysis were 2,405 percent, 1,002 percent and 1,250 percent. The arithmetic average of the three rises was about 1,552 percent, and the geometric average was about 1,444 percent. Using a current XRP price of about $1.40 and applying the 1,444 percent geometric average implies XRP could rise to about $21.62.

Even with the same data, the target price can vary depending on the method. Analyst Moon Lambo said Egrag’s approach is a reasonable way to assess past XRP gains, but noted results can change depending on what price is set as the starting point.

In a separate calculation presented by Moon Lambo, XRP’s target price came to about $14.77. Another calculation showed it could rise to about $12.55 if only the 1,250 percent gain from the three past cycles is applied.

Such prices are not definitive targets but are closer to scenarios that apply past data to the current price. Moon Lambo also drew a line, saying it is not possible to know how far XRP will actually rise. Over the long term, he explained, there could be room for further gains if XRP’s fundamentals continue to improve.

If XRP rises more than 1,000 percent, the market size also expands sharply. The outlet said that if such a rise materialises, XRP’s market capitalisation could come close to $1 trillion. It also pointed out that the market structure has changed significantly from the past, and that XRP’s market capitalisation and liquidity, investment demand and the overall crypto market do not face the same conditions as in the previous cycle. It means whether XRP can repeat past gains is a separate issue.

Not only bullish views are being offered. Analyst RWA_Investor focused on the possibility that XRP could face substantial volatility before entering a full-fledged uptrend. Based on Elliott Wave analysis, he forecast XRP could first rise to the $1.87 to $2.11 range, and then climb further to around $2.64 to $3.09.

He then suggested the possibility of a sharp correction. RWA_Investor said XRP could slide to $1.42 after the rise, and mentioned it could fall to $0.7451 if the drop deepens. That would be about 46 percent below the current level of about $1.40.

The analysis suggests XRP may be more likely to repeat spikes and corrections along the way, rather than rising in a straight line in the short term, before forming a larger rally cycle.

Ultimately, the key for XRP’s future price depends on whether it can reproduce past gains. Applying gains of more than 1,000 percent can produce calculations that reach the $20 range well above $10, but this is only a scenario based on past data.

In particular, given that XRP’s current market size and liquidity and the structure of the crypto market differ significantly from the past, it is difficult to apply past gains directly to future prices. Analysts are also presenting double-digit dollar prices as possibilities, but are not viewing them as definitive price targets.