Bitcoin short-term holders' realised selling profit and loss has moved into positive territory for the first time in about a year. As the trend of selling bitcoin while accepting losses weakens, the market is seeing analysis that short-term investors' conditions for selling are improving.

On Sept. 7 (local time), blockchain media outlet CoinPost reported that on-chain analyst Darkpost said, based on CryptoQuant data, that the 30-day moving average of the Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR) rose above 1.

STH-SOPR compares the purchase price and the sale price when bitcoin held for less than 6 months is sold. A reading above 1 means short-term holders are selling bitcoin at a profit on average, while a reading below 1 indicates loss-taking sales are dominant.

Darkpost said the 30-day moving average of STH-SOPR has risen to about 1.01. He assessed the move as a clearer change than the temporary reaction seen in May.

He particularly noted it as a signal that the phase of loss-taking by short-term holders that lasted for more than a year is effectively ending. Darkpost explained that during the recent bear market, short-term holders sold while accepting losses on average for about a year, and that STH-SOPR has now reached a level above 1 for the first time.

This shows that the structure of selling by short-term investors has changed. Previously, relatively more sales locked in losses as prices fell, but recently more investors have been taking profits in ranges where bitcoin prices are above their purchase price.

The analysis says profit-taking itself does not need to be seen as a sign of overheating. Darkpost assessed a market where profit-taking occurs as healthier, and said it is a natural market process for short-term holders, who are most sensitive to price changes, to realise gains.

The key is how long the current level is maintained. If the 30-day average of STH-SOPR moves steadily above 1, it could mean a structure has taken hold in which short-term holders move away from loss-taking sales and continue profit-taking.

There have been cases in past bull markets where bitcoin prices continued to rise while profit-taking by short-term holders persisted. As a result, whether this indicator change is limited to a temporary rebound or extends into a trend has emerged as a key point for the market to watch.

Still, this analysis is based on Darkpost's interpretation of on-chain data. The fact that STH-SOPR has risen above 1 alone makes it difficult to conclude that bitcoin will rise further or that the market will shift to a bull market. Other indicators, such as trading volume, moves by long-term holders and fund flows in spot and derivatives markets, also need to be examined.

Ultimately, what the market is watching is whether STH-SOPR can settle above 1. If short-term holders no longer sell while accepting losses on average and a trend of realising profits continues, it is likely to increase the possibility that recent investor sentiment in the bitcoin market will be interpreted as improved compared with before.