[Digital Today reporter Jinju Hong] The U.S. Treasury on Sept. 7 began full execution of a government debt buyback program, boosting expectations of near-term liquidity around bitcoin and XRP. The program’s weekly cap is $14.5 billion. The maximum execution size per Treasury session could reach $16.5 billion, blockchain outlet U.Today reported.

Markets are focusing on Sept. 9. The Treasury plans that day to double the per-round cap for long-term buybacks to $4 billion from $2 billion. The target is long-dated Treasuries with maturities of 10 to 30 years. The amount of bonds the Treasury is set to absorb from the market in September was presented as about $38.25 billion. Over the same period, the Federal Reserve plans to deploy up to $2.122 billion into purchases of short-term Treasuries under its principal reinvestment plan.

Crypto markets are watching whether this flow of funds, routed through major banks and dealers, spurs appetite for risk assets. Authorities describe injections of several billion dollars as a “routine” step. Traders, however, see the cash supplied as the Treasury buys back older bonds as a potential trigger for a breakout in crypto prices that have stayed in a long trading range.

As of early September, bitcoin is trading just below the psychological resistance level of $80,000. The market has formed a large liquidity band and dense short-liquidation zone between $79,500 and $82,000. In that setting, if major dealers show buying interest on Sept. 9, forced liquidation of short positions could cascade and bitcoin could try to retest a near-term peak, the outlook says.

Funds are also gathering in XRP. XRP is nearing $1.45, and institutional inflows were presented as at an all-time high. Net inflows into U.S. spot XRP ETFs have exceeded $1.66 billion. The market is watching whether fresh dollar liquidity helps XRP break its key resistance level at $1.70 and then opens a path toward the psychological level of $2.

Some caution is also emerging against viewing the move immediately as broad-based quantitative easing. Market analysts pointed out that the Treasury is not “creating new money from nothing,” but is seeking to stabilise elevated Treasury yields by swapping long-term debt for short-term borrowing. As Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tries to stabilise rates, crypto markets are gauging how much of the actual cash inflow generated in the process spreads into risk assets.

Policy variables also remain. On Sept. 15, the U.S. Senate is set to hold a key vote on the Clarity bill. For XRP, that schedule is being cited as one of the biggest catalysts this autumn. Some see price volatility rising further if liquidity inflows and the regulatory calendar align.

There are also medium-term risks. If Treasury buybacks overstimulate the economy, the Federal Reserve may have to keep interest rates high for longer than expected. That could instead limit upside in crypto markets.

Ultimately, the near-term market focus is on how much money is actually released on Sept. 9 and how that shock is reflected in bitcoin and XRP prices. The two assets’ reaction is emerging as a key variable that could determine the direction of the crypto market in autumn 2026.