Crypto
Prediction markets see 71 percent chance bitcoin falls to $50,000 this year
Prediction markets are increasingly pricing in further declines in bitcoin through 2026. They put the probability of bitcoin falling to $55,000 or lower this year at 65 to 71 percent, citing a lack of upside momentum and macroeconomic uncertainty. Polymarket shows a 71 percent chance of a drop below $55,000 by year-end, while Kalshi posts similar odds. Short-term flows have weakened as U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs see outflows.
