South Korea's brokerage industry is signalling "earnings surprises" ahead of fourth-quarter results for last year. A record market rally has pushed average daily trading value close to 37 trillion won. Brokerage fee income has surged, and returns from investments in promising overseas companies have started to materialise.

As of Jan. 13, Mirae Asset Securities, Korea Investment Holdings, NH Investment & Securities, Samsung Securities and Kiwoom Securities are estimated to have a combined fourth-quarter net profit attributable to controlling shareholders of about 1.50 trillion won. That is 17.4 percent above the market consensus of 1.28 trillion won.

The main driver of the strong results is a record rise in trading value. In the fourth quarter, average daily trading value in the domestic stock market (KOSPI and KOSDAQ) rose 43 percent from the previous quarter to 36.9 trillion won, a record high. Combined brokerage fee revenue for the five firms is expected to jump 99.6 percent from a year earlier to 1.62 trillion won. It is also up 35.8 percent from the third quarter.

Hyejin Park, an analyst at Daishin Securities, said, "Even though the fourth quarter is usually a weak period due to seasonal cost recognition, trading value exploded enough to call it 'Crazy Brokerage' this time, driving profits."

By company, Mirae Asset Securities stands out. Its fourth-quarter net profit is expected to rise 25.3 percent from a year earlier to 334.6 billion won, based on estimates by Hana Securities, and could reach as high as 394.2 billion won, based on estimates by Daishin Securities.

Mirae Asset Securities' strong performance is due to aggressive investment bearing fruit in Elon Musk's artificial intelligence company. Brokerage houses estimate that xAI's valuation has risen about 4.6 times from the time of investment, and that Mirae Asset Securities recorded more than 300 billion won in valuation gains in the fourth quarter alone.

Yeonsu Ko, an analyst at Hana Securities, said Mirae Asset Securities has invested early not only in xAI but also in unlisted innovative companies such as SpaceX. He added that valuation gains from SpaceX are expected to be reflected in the first quarter of next year, extending the earnings improvement trend. He also analysed that losses tied to overseas commercial real estate, or CRE, could be sufficiently offset by such investment windfalls.

Kiwoom Securities and Korea Investment Holdings, traditional "brokerage powerhouses", are also expected to deliver record results.

Kiwoom Securities, which has a high share of retail investors, is expected to post fourth-quarter net profit of about 296.4 billion won, up 102.4 percent from a year earlier. A domestic market boom in the fourth quarter drove results as brokerage fee revenue alone exceeded 200 billion won.

Korea Investment Holdings is also expected to post fourth-quarter net profit of 370.1 billion won, up 272.5 percent from 99.4 billion won a year earlier. NH Investment & Securities, at 211.7 billion won, up 92.4 percent, and Samsung Securities, at 230.2 billion won, up 55.9 percent, are also expected to see sharp profit improvements.

Brokerage houses expect the strong earnings trend to continue in 2026. Average daily trading value in the domestic stock market has exceeded 50 trillion won so far in January, showing sustained momentum.

Analysts say entry into a semiconductor "super cycle" and share price gains led by advanced industries such as AI and biotech are boosting investor sentiment. Government policies to revitalise the KOSDAQ market and a planned introduction of tax benefits such as a "National Growth Fund" are also positive for brokerage shares.

Park said government-led policies to activate venture capital would accelerate inflows into the KOSDAQ market. She added that Kiwoom Securities, which has a high share of KOSDAQ trading, would be among the biggest beneficiaries.

A securities industry official said risks tied to real estate project financing were gradually moving into a resolution phase and retail investors' money shift was accelerating, making brokerages' earnings capacity more solid than ever. The official said it was highly likely that the run of record results would continue in the first quarter of this year.