If the adoption of electric vehicles expands rapidly and enough used EV inventory builds up, used prices for gasoline and diesel cars could fall sharply and effectively become stranded assets, a forecast said. Norway and China were pointed to as markets showing this change first.

According to CleanTechnica on Aug. 30, Norway recorded battery electric vehicles at 95.9 percent of new passenger car sales in 2025, rising to 97.6 percent in July this year. However, EVs accounted for 34.6 percent of all passenger cars as of mid-year, meaning more than 60 percent of vehicles on the road still use internal combustion engines. That suggests it takes time for a shift in the new-car market to reshape the overall used-car market.

In China, the change is appearing faster. From January to April this year, transactions of used new energy vehicles totalled 547,900 units, up 29 percent from a year earlier, and resale prices also rose about 30 percent. By contrast, some used gasoline cars became harder to sell, with cases in which prices fell by nearly 10 percent within a month or losses of 30,000 yuan (about 6.15 million won) were incurred on a single vehicle. Residual value for a 3-year-old internal combustion vehicle fell to about 46 percent.

Still, new energy vehicles account for only 8.57 percent of China’s used-car market. The outlet said that as used EV supply increases in earnest, downward pressure on internal combustion vehicle prices could grow stronger.

A key variable is total cost of ownership. A gasoline car driven 12,000 miles (about 19,312 km) a year and rated at 25 mpg (about 10.6 km per litre) costs $1,920 a year, or $160 a month, in fuel alone at $4 per gallon ($1.06 per litre, 1,462 won). Adding maintenance and repair costs for ageing vehicles could push monthly costs to about $300, by that calculation. By contrast, an EV charged at home was put at about $100 a month including electricity and upkeep.

The United States is shifting much more slowly. In cumulative new-car sales through July this year, battery electric vehicles accounted for 5.9 percent. With an average vehicle age of 12.8 years and about 289,000,000 vehicles in operation, it is difficult for the structure of the used-car market to change in a short period.

Ultimately, an analysis said the timing of a sharp fall in internal combustion vehicle values depends on how quickly used EV supply grows and how strongly the running-cost gap is reflected in consumers’ used-car choices.