[DigitalToday reporter Jinju Hong (홍진주)] Tesla has framed its Full Self-Driving software FSD v15 as a major performance leap in autonomous driving technology. It also suggested it could begin external sales of its humanoid robot Optimus from the second half of 2027. By specifying commercialization timelines for its autonomous driving and robotics businesses, Tesla appears to have put its execution on those two future businesses back on test.

On Aug. 20 local time, electric vehicle media outlet Electrek reported that Tesla shared the business roadmap in a recent meeting with JPMorgan at its Fremont plant in the United States.

Tesla explained that FSD v15 is a step-change advance based on 7 core technologies. About 40 percent of them are already operating in the Austin robotaxi fleet, it said, adding that initial responses were positive.

On hardware, Tesla said that HW4, also known internally as the AI4 computer, can handle FSD v15 and unsupervised driving. It is also introducing AI4.5, which boosts computing performance by about 10 percent and roughly doubles memory. The launch schedule for the next-generation AI5 chip has been pushed back to mid-2027.

Tesla also presented a plan to expand Cybercab. It told JPMorgan it could expand Cybercab services in the near term. Additional Model Y robotaxi conversions are being deliberately slowed, and Tesla is aiming for a long-term operating cost of about $0.30 per mile using an unboxed manufacturing method.

It plans to ramp up fleet expansion between late 2026 and early 2027. But the current operating scale shows a significant gap from its targets. Tesla's Austin unsupervised service has been out for more than a year, but it is still operated around a small number of vehicles. Tesla has recently disclosed cumulative unsupervised mileage of 380,000 miles, a large gap compared with Waymo's more than 200 million miles.

Tesla presented an even more aggressive schedule for Optimus. Tesla said it has completed the third-generation Optimus design and that its supply chain is effectively finalized. It is building an Optimus production line at an existing Model S and X production facility in Fremont, and said external commercial sales could start as early as the second half of 2027.

It also presented long-term production targets. Tesla is aiming to secure annual Optimus production capacity of 1,000,000 units in Fremont and 10,000,000 units in Texas.

Even so, questions remain over whether the Optimus timeline can be met. Elon Musk has repeatedly presented plans to unveil Optimus and move to mass production, but more recently he has acknowledged there are no Optimus robots within Tesla that perform truly useful tasks. Contrary to a plan that mentioned holding 5,000 units last year, it is now reported that only a small number of test robots are being operated.

The details appear largely intended to explain Tesla's future business plans directly to investors. At JPMorgan, Rajat Gupta adjusted Tesla's investment rating to neutral and presented a target price of about $445. It is also necessary to consider that this roadmap does not mean commercialization is immediately confirmed, but is closer to targets Tesla has presented to investors going forward.

In the end, the key is not the schedule but actual results. Tesla has emphasized a large performance improvement in FSD v15 and the possibility of unsupervised driving based on HW4, but the core question is whether unsupervised driving is actually implemented stably in customer vehicles. For Cybercab, it is also important whether it can scale up actual service operations alongside expanded vehicle production.

The same applies to Optimus. Before the target of external sales in the second half of 2027, Tesla must prove how reliably it can replace tasks previously performed by humans at internal production sites. For both FSD and Optimus, the biggest point to watch will be whether Tesla's next steps can lead to actual commercialization.