With the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) presenting measures to ease token fundraising rules, large XRP holders were found to have accumulated more than 642 million XRP near the psychological support level of $1. The market is seeing analysis that easing expectations and buying by large investors are combining to help defend XRP’s price.

On Aug. 19, blockchain media outlet U.Today reported that XRP traded while holding the $1.0052 level. The broader crypto market also appeared to enter a pause within a narrow price range after last week’s sharp drop, with some recovery in fund flows.

On Aug. 18, U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $189.31 million for the day, and ethereum ETFs had $71.47 million. By contrast, inflows into spot XRP ETFs totalled $5.81 million. Earlier, U.S. crypto funds recorded net outflows of $389.70 million in total from Aug. 10 to 14.

Large wallets, not retail investors, were at the centre of XRP’s price defence. Wallets holding 1 million to 10 million XRP bought an additional 380 million in the first week of August, lifting total holdings to 8.13 billion. They then bought 72 million on Aug. 13 to 14 and 190 million on Aug. 16 to 17, absorbing 642 million over about 10 days.

Large transactions also surged. From Aug. 17 to 18, the number of XRPL transactions worth $1 million or more exceeded 38 a day, up about 280 percent from the prior period. The market is interpreting this as a sign that moves by institutions and high-net-worth investors are gaining momentum.

Ripple is also accelerating fundraising. Ripple Prime, Ripple’s brokerage subsidiary, privately issued unsecured corporate bonds worth $275 million maturing in 2031 for the first time. The bonds carried a coupon rate of 8.25 percent and received a BBB rating from credit rating agency KBRA. Piper Sandler served as lead underwriter.

Including funds raised in May, Ripple has secured a total of $475 million in debt financing over the past three months through Hidden Road infrastructure. Hidden Road is a prime brokerage firm that Ripple acquired last year for $1.25 billion. The company is also working with South Korea’s Jeonbuk Bank on an instant payment service based on Ripple Payments.

Ripple’s stablecoin RLUSD showed diverging trends by blockchain. On XRPL, about $35.70 million was recently burned, pushing the monthly burn rate to 99 percent. About $449.30 million was issued over the past 30 days, but $448.90 million was burned again, retrieving most supply. On Ethereum, $403.00 million was issued and only $177.30 million was burned, leaving relatively more liquidity. Total RLUSD supply is about $1.757 billion, split almost evenly between the two chains.

The market is also seeing analysis that these moves are aligning with expectations for changes in the U.S. regulatory environment. The SEC proposed exempting eligible token issuers raising $75 million or less a year from registration requirements. It also released a safe-harbor provision under which a token would automatically exit securities status if developers meet certain technical milestones, along with measures to ease token lockup rules.

Still, changes to the system are expected to take time. The U.S. Senate is set to hold a procedural vote on the CLARITY bill on Sept. 15, but debate continues over issues including staking rewards and conflicts of interest involving senior government officials’ crypto holdings. The market puts the chance of the bill passing within the year at about 20 percent, sharply lower than expectations of more than 80 percent a few months ago.

Despite inflows into the spot market, risks in the derivatives market remain. According to a CoinGlass liquidation heatmap, if bitcoin falls to $57,200, forced liquidation of long positions could exceed $4.36 billion. Ethereum could also see about $2.97 billion in long liquidations if it drops to $1,715, it said.

By contrast, asset manager VanEck presented a view that bitcoin’s correction is entering its final stage. It cited that 8 of its 12 core indicators point to a final capitulation zone and that the current bear market has continued for 10 months. It said September to November could shift into a full-fledged accumulation phase.

Ultimately, the market appears to be reflecting both positive factors such as recovering spot inflows and expectations for regulatory easing, and risk factors such as excessive long positions in the futures market. XRP’s defence of the $1 level is also taking on meaning beyond simple price support, making large investors’ accumulation and Ripple’s fundraising moves key variables to watch for the market’s next direction.