An analysis said XRP is nearing a major turning point against bitcoin and ethereum.

On Aug. 17, blockchain media outlet The Crypto Basic reported that market analyst Dark Defender sees the XRP-to-ether price ratio moving into a Wave 5 uptrend after completing a Wave 4 correction under Elliott Wave theory.

Dark Defender described XRP as "preparing for takeoff" in a two-week XRP-ETH chart posted on X, formerly Twitter. He said ether could rise more in the short term, but then XRP would lead the market by surpassing bitcoin and ethereum.

In the chart he presented, the XRP-ETH ratio is in Wave 4. That is interpreted as a temporary correction before a rise. Key price levels cited were the Fibonacci 30 percent level near 0.0004141 ether and the 38.2 percent level near 0.0005487 ether. The XRP-ETH ratio recently traded around 0.000532 ether, close to the 38.2 percent retracement level.

Dark Defender then cited about 0.002238 ether as the Wave 5 target. That is the 361.8 percent Fibonacci extension level on the chart. If that scenario materialises, XRP could far outperform ether in the next cryptocurrency cycle, the analysis said.

Market views were mixed. Another XRP analyst, ChartNerd, took a more cautious view of the XRP-ETH set-up, saying "nothing is absolute". He said XRP could remain weak against bitcoin and ethereum through year-end.

ChartNerd said that after a bear market ends, funds typically move first into safer large assets. In that case, liquidity could flow into bitcoin first and then shift to ether and XRP. If that pattern continues, XRP could remain weak particularly against bitcoin, he said. He added that if bitcoin prices slide, ether, XRP and other altcoins could face additional pressure.

Price action also remains sluggish. XRP traded at $1, according to CoinMarketCap data. XRP has fallen below the psychological support level of $1 three times since last week, the first time since 2024.

Ether traded at about $1,910. That level is up about 36 percent since the start of the year, meaning relative strength has remained higher than XRP's.

Even so, some still see XRP as entering the final stage of the bear market. Others warned that further declines could open the way to around $0.70. Some analysts also said that because XRP has fallen more than 73 percent from its peak of $3.66, upside opportunities are greater than downside risks. In the near term, the key question is whether XRP will end its Wave 4 correction against ether and rebound, or extend its relative weakness amid bitcoin-centred fund flows.

XRP-ETH Pair: XRP is on the taxiway, completing Wave 4. ETH can appreciate a bit more in the coming days. But afterwards, XRP will take over both Bitcoin & Ether and dominate the field. Enjoy. pic.twitter.com/8sI8JIP8Nq