Bitcoin is showing unusually low volatility in a bear-market phase.

Bitcoin Magazine reported on Aug. 18 local time that asset manager VanEck said in a recent report that bitcoin’s 30-day realized volatility fell to 27.2 percent on an annualised basis. That is lower than 30.4 percent a month earlier and less than half the long-term average of about 80 percent.

Recent price action also showed the same stagnation. Bitcoin rebounded after hitting a low near $58,500 in June, but moved in a narrow range between $62,265 and $66,509 for most of July without establishing a clear direction.

Trading volume has also shrunk sharply. Spot trading volume over the past 30 days fell 27 percent from the previous month and dropped to the bottom 10 percent of its historical distribution based on its own tally. A summer slowdown in trading was also more pronounced than in 2024 or 2025, and spot trading volume fell to a level similar to that seen during the 2023 bear market.

Technical indicators remain in bearish territory. Bitcoin is currently about 9 percent below its 200-day moving average. The gap has narrowed from 14 percent a month earlier, but it is still about 49 percent below its all-time high (ATH).

Supply and demand data showed notable moves by long-term holders. Bitcoin held for at least 1 year fell by about 356,000 BTC over a month, down 2.9 percent, and its share of total supply slipped back below 60 percent for the first time in months. By contrast, holdings kept for more than 10 years fell only 0.1 percent, suggesting selling was concentrated mainly among the 1-year to 3-year holding cohort.

VanEck also pointed to the possibility that the market is entering the later stages of a bear market in bitcoin’s traditional 4-year cycle. It said 8 of the 12 capitulation signals it tracks have already appeared, and similar signals in the past were mainly observed in the later part of downtrends.

It said it was still too early to be definitive about the timing of a bottom. Applying patterns from past cycles suggests a low could form between September and November this year, but returns after similar signals appeared at the same time did not show a consistent pattern. It added that meaningful performance differences were confirmed only in long-term holding periods measured in 1-year units.

The bitcoin market now looks closer to a stagnation phase in which volume and volatility contract together rather than sharp price swings. With long-term holdings also declining, market attention is focused more on whether a bottom is forming than on a short-term rebound.