Bitcoin rose about 87-fold over the past 10 years, while 87 percent of U.S. large-cap active equity funds failed to outperform passive benchmarks, data showed. An analysis said long-term investment results were driven more by asset allocation itself than by stock selection.

On Aug. 18, blockchain media outlet CryptoSlate reported that Morningstar data showed that, over the past 10 years through June 30 this year, only 13 percent of U.S. large-cap active funds beat their benchmarks. The remaining 87 percent delivered lower returns than passive products that track the market.

The long-term return gap between Bitcoin and U.S. large-cap indices was even wider. Bitcoin rose to $58,558.86 on June 30, 2026, from $673.34 on June 30, 2016. Its total return was about 8,597 percent, and its compound annual growth rate was about 56.3 percent.

Over the same period, State Street put SPY’s 10-year annualized total return at 15.35 percent. Assuming dividends were reinvested, an investment of $10,000 in SPY would have grown to about $41,704, versus about $869,677 in Bitcoin. By final asset value, Bitcoin was about 20.9 times SPY.

A key point in the comparison goes beyond simple differences in returns by asset. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs were launched only in 2024, so large-cap active managers had, until then, to pick stocks within the equity market to beat indices. The analysis said what determined long-term results was not only how well individual stocks were chosen, but also which asset class investors chose.

Over the past 12 months, active fund performance improved somewhat. The share of U.S. large-cap active funds that beat their benchmarks rose to 27 percent over the period. The assessment said opportunities for active management increased as gains in artificial intelligence-related stocks spread and differences in performance by stock widened in a high interest rate environment.

But the concentration in mega-cap U.S. stocks remains a burden for active management. Dow Jones Market Data showed the combined weighting of the top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 has risen above 40 percent, the highest level since the 1960s.

In the market-cap-weighted S&P 500, the more a stock’s price rises, the larger its weight becomes in the index. As a result, active funds that do not fully keep up with mega-cap gains are more likely to lag the index overall even if they perform well in other stocks.

Bitcoin’s long-term performance is also difficult to judge by returns alone. Wells Fargo pointed to cases where Bitcoin fell about 83 percent after its 2017 peak and about 77 percent after its 2021 peak. That means investors had to endure such large pullbacks to realize a rise of about 87-fold over 10 years.

In particular, Bitcoin’s high volatility can make it difficult for investors to maintain their target allocation for long periods. Its weighting in a portfolio can grow too large after sharp price rises, or investors may sell during a steep decline because they cannot withstand losses.

The shift of money into passive investing is also clear. The Investment Company Institute said that as of June this year, assets in active mutual funds and ETFs stood at $18.8 trillion, while assets in index mutual funds and ETFs totaled $21.9 trillion. Over the same period, long-term active funds saw net outflows of $7.78 billion, while long-term index funds recorded net inflows of $119.32 billion. The flows show which of active and passive investors prefer.

A factor going forward is how widely the U.S. stock market rally spreads beyond mega-caps. If AI beneficiaries expand across industries and stocks and sector leadership changes, active managers could have greater chances to outperform the index. If the current mega-cap concentration persists, passive products are likely to keep a relatively favorable position by automatically increasing exposure to market winners.

It is also difficult to assert that Bitcoin will repeat past gains. If a large correction occurs, returns built up over a long period could shrink quickly. Even so, based on performance over the past decade alone, Bitcoin investors who endured its outsized rise ended up with about $828,000 more than SPY investors over the same period.

Ultimately, performance over the past 10 years shows that what mattered was not only which stocks were chosen, but also which asset investors chose and how long they maintained that choice.