Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) switched to net inflows of $137.3 million on Aug. 17, local time. But most of the money was concentrated in a Fidelity product, prompting criticism that it is hard to see it as a signal of a broader rebound in market demand.
On Aug. 18, blockchain media outlet CryptoSlate reported that 81.5 percent of the inflows tallied that day came from Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC).
Based on Farside data, FBTC drew $111.9 million. Ark’s ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) posted net inflows of $14.2 million, and Morgan Stanley’s Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust ETF (MSBT) recorded $11.2 million. Those were the only three products with confirmed inflows, while the remaining items were shown as zero.
There are still uncertainties. A dash was shown for BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), meaning its tally has not yet been confirmed. As a result, the current figures alone cannot conclude that IBIT’s flow is zero, and the Aug. 17 total should also be seen as provisional.
The net inflow came after net outflows for five straight trading days. In the same tally, daily flows from Aug. 10 to 14 were minus $144.6 million, $7.8 million, minus $61.1 million, minus $131.1 million and minus $56.2 million. Cumulative net outflows over the five most recent days totaled $385.2 million.
As a result, the Aug. 17 inflow recouped only 35.6 percent of the immediately preceding outflows. Even when expanding to the broader group of six products, net outflows still amount to $247.9 million.
Another uncertainty is that it is difficult to identify who is behind the investing. ETF flow data alone cannot distinguish whether institutions, asset managers or retail investors were the buyers, making it hard to conclude that institutional demand has broadly recovered. It is also difficult to say from this data alone that ETF inflows directly drove bitcoin’s price moves.
The figures show that where and how much money was concentrated matters more than the shift to net inflows itself. Whether the ETF market is recovering is expected to depend on whether inflows spread across multiple products rather than being concentrated in a daily total, and whether the trend continues after provisional figures are confirmed.