Bitcoin that has not moved even once for more than 10 years has risen to 3.56 million BTC, a record high. That is about 17.7 percent of total supply. As mining nears its end and long-dormant holdings increase, some analysis suggests the amount of Bitcoin that can actually be traded in the market may be smaller.

CoinPost reported on Aug. 17 that Darkfost, an analyst at on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, said that as of Aug. 16, Bitcoin that has not moved for more than 10 years totaled 3.56 million BTC. That is about 17.7 percent compared with Bitcoin's total supply of 21 million BTC.

More than 20.07 million BTC has been issued, meaning about 95.6 percent of total supply has been mined. But as new issuance decreases, holdings that do not move for long periods are also continuing to rise.

In particular, about 14,000 BTC has newly entered the category of not moving for more than 10 years over the past 30 days. Unlike Bitcoin supplied through mining that flows into the market, it means a large share of existing holdings is shifting into long-term storage.

Long-dormant Bitcoin does not necessarily stay out of the market forever. In July last year, cases were also confirmed in which Bitcoin that had not moved for years was transferred. Still, Darkfost's analysis is that the overall trend of rising long-dormant supply is continuing.

Circulating supply could shrink further when lost Bitcoin is also considered. Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao (창펑 자오), known as CZ, estimated in a post on X on Aug. 15 that 10 to 20 percent of existing Bitcoin may be lost, frozen or unrecoverable. He also said, based on that, that Bitcoin should be viewed as a de facto deflationary asset.

Bitcoin is structured so that new issuance decreases through halving about every 4 years. If permanently inaccessible holdings due to lost private keys and long-dormant holdings are added, the gap could widen between the theoretical maximum supply of 21 million BTC and the supply that is actually tradable.

That has led to a view in the market that it is necessary to look at actual liquid supply rather than simple total issuance. With more than 95 percent of all Bitcoin already mined, if long-term holding and estimated losses rise at the same time, Bitcoin immediately available for trading on exchanges and in the market could become relatively scarce.

Still, not all Bitcoin that has not moved for more than 10 years can be considered lost. With a significant amount also held by long-term investors, whether these holdings flow back into the market in the future is expected to be a key variable on the supply side.