[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee] Bitcoin has recovered to the $64,000 range, but it finished the week trading below the 200-week simple moving average (SMA), keeping caution over the long-term trend in place.

On Aug. 17 (local time), blockchain media outlet Cointelegraph reported that bitcoin moved around $63,000 early last week but gave up the 200-week moving average again later in the week, a level seen as a key long-term support.

What the market is watching is not the rebound itself but the fact that the weekly long-term trend line has broken. Analyst Benjamin Cowen pointed to a pattern in which bitcoin plunged below the 200-week moving average in both 2022 and the summer of 2026, rebounded, and then slipped below it again in mid-August.

Rekt Capital also said the weekly close fell short of his $63,220 target. He said resistance at $63,220 would confirm a downside break, and the price could fall further within the $58,000 to $66,000 range.

Macro factors also remain a burden for bitcoin. This week brings preliminary U.S. manufacturing and services purchasing managers index (PMI) readings, along with the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s July meeting. Recent U.S. consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) data showed a milder inflation trend than expected, lowering market expectations for additional rate hikes. According to CME FedWatch, the probability the Fed keeps rates at 3.50 to 3.75 percent is about 70 percent, up from 42 percent a month earlier.

Mosaic Asset Company assessed that recent inflation data showing easing pressures is limiting an overly hawkish tilt in monetary policy expectations. It added that the July Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting saw the highest level of internal disagreement over holding rates since 1970.

Japan is also a focal point for risk-asset markets. Japan’s second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) grew 0.3 percent from the previous quarter and 1.1 percent from a year earlier, both below expectations. Private consumption also fell for the first time in 8 quarters. Markets are pricing in the possibility that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) raises rates further in September from the current 1.0 percent level, and Japan’s 10-year government bond yield rose to 2.93 percent on Aug. 17, the highest level since 1996.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr said it was not yet a signal to sell risk assets. He warned, however, that if Japanese government bond yields move above 3 percent and additional BoJ rate hikes and yen strength coincide with rising U.S. Treasury yields, Japan’s rate normalisation could tighten global financial conditions and shock stocks and bitcoin.

Internal market flows are also not favourable for bitcoin. Glassnode said that while U.S. equities are hovering near record highs, consumer sentiment is nearing its weakest level in 10 years. It said money is flowing into artificial intelligence (AI), but bitcoin is being left out of that shift. Glassnode said that for this to change, institutional money would need to return to spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

But spot bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $267.2 million last week. Only 1 of 5 trading days ended with net inflows, and the amount was just $7.8 million. That suggests bitcoin will struggle to share in gains in the stock market unless flows recover.

Exchange flows are also a burden. CryptoQuant analysed that whales have been taking a larger share of recent exchange inflows. Binance’s whale ratio rose to 0.71 on Aug. 10, the highest since early March. CryptoQuant said exchange deposits do not necessarily mean immediate selling, but they increase the amount of bitcoin that can be used for trading or hedging.

Binance’s bitcoin holdings stood at 674,332 BTC as of Aug. 16. That is up 2.57 percent this month and the highest level since November 2025. While bitcoin has traded in a narrow range since early June, trading has continued mainly in derivatives markets, and Binance futures volume in early August was 8 times spot volume.

Ultimately, the key for the bitcoin market this week is whether the slip below the 200-week moving average is a temporary shakeout or a signal of further declines, as in 2022. Fed minutes, Japan’s rate path, spot ETF inflows and outflows, and whale inflows to exchanges remain near-term factors that could set direction.

Japan's 10-year government bond yield has risen to 2.93% - the highest level since 1996. This matters beyond Japan. The higher JGB yields go, the less incentive Japanese capital has to move into US Treasuries and other foreign assets. For now, this is not a signal to sell risk… pic.twitter.com/mBK6KC4QrM