Bitcoin has slipped to the low $60,000s from a peak of about $126,080 hit last October. Some in the market view the drop as a repeat of the existing cycle rather than a structural break.

Bitcoin Magazine reported on Aug. 13 that asset manager VanEck said in a recent report that the current correction shows a pattern similar to bitcoin's past four-year halving cycle.

Bitcoin's mining reward is cut in half through halvings, reducing new supply. VanEck said that structure has repeatedly produced a pattern that later leads into a bearish phase. It sees the latest decline as another correction repeated within bitcoin's market structure, not an exceptional collapse.

VanEck pointed to the possibility of a bottom forming based on its GEO framework. The indicator tracks global liquidity, ecosystem leverage and on-chain activity. It said 2 of the 3 signals are now in a neutral range and ecosystem leverage has entered a constructive area. VanEck said that combination indicates an early sign that a bottom is beginning to form, and that it may be time to start building positions in tranches.

On-chain data analytics firm CryptoQuant also presented a similar signal. Based on its adjusted net unrealised profit and loss indicator, CryptoQuant said long-term holders have moved into deeper unrealised losses than the market-wide average. Long-term holders are generally classified as the group that endures losses the longest in the market.

MorenoDV (모레노DV), an analyst at CryptoQuant, said this week that the phenomenon of long-term holders bearing a heavier loss burden than average has repeated at each major cycle bottom in the past. That means bottom zones coincided with times when the market's most resilient participants were shaken more than the average.

Both organisations, however, did not define the current point as a definitive bottom. CryptoQuant warned that in past cycles, the same long-term holder indicator fell much further into negative territory before reaching an actual low. It said the current figure has not reached that level, leaving open the possibility that bitcoin could face another larger capitulation selloff.

The variable is demand. CryptoQuant said if institutional demand has grown stronger and the holder base has become more resilient than before, this cycle could form a bottom with less damage than in the past. If those buffers are weak, an additional decline similar in intensity to past cycles could follow.

Overall, the market is under clear pressure by historical standards, but has not yet reached the extreme signals seen at past bottoms. VanEck put more weight on the possibility that the cycle is in an early stage of bottom formation. CryptoQuant identified patterns similar to bottom signals but cautioned against a premature call. The next turning point depends on where institutional demand and long-term holders' loss indicators stop.