Bitcoin has stayed in a narrow box range around $63,000, entering a technical compression phase similar to the period just before a major rally began in 2023.

U.Today, a blockchain outlet, reported on Tuesday that the Bollinger Band width on Bitcoin’s daily chart has narrowed to its lowest level since October 2023.

Traders call such extremely low volatility a “squeeze”. It generally refers to a phase in which a sharp price move can emerge after volatility drops sharply.

The current chart shows a flow similar to autumn 2023. At the time, after Bollinger Bands narrowed significantly, Bitcoin entered a full-fledged uptrend and later maintained a long bullish run through mid-2025.

This time, macroeconomic factors are also aligning with the technical signal. The July consumer price index (CPI) released on the day met market expectations. Markets are focusing on the possibility that the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep rates at the current level without an additional rate hike at its September meeting. Fed officials have also shown a view that the current rate level is sufficiently restrictive and that inflation can be brought back to the 2 percent target without further hikes.

Bulls see a Fed rate hold as potentially supporting a repeat of Bitcoin’s “bullish fractal”. They argue that if price turns upward after a long volatility squeeze, a strong upswing similar to 2023 could emerge again.

Still, market views are mixed. Tariff burdens persist, and uncertainty over energy prices remains. With demand for technology equipment also rising on the back of the artificial intelligence (AI) boom, uncertainty over the medium- to long-term inflation path remains. That could affect not only the Fed’s monetary policy but also risk-asset investment sentiment.

Bears point out that a volatility squeeze does not necessarily lead to an upside breakout. Some also expect that if macroeconomic risks expand, volatility could break lower and Bitcoin could retest the $57,800 low formed in early July.

Ultimately, the market is focused on whether a Bollinger Band contraction resembling 2023 will again lead to a strong trend rise, and whether rate-hold expectations formed after the CPI release will support risk-asset investment sentiment. Bitcoin is at a turning point to end a long period of sideways trade and decide a new direction.