Inflows into spot bitcoin and ethereum exchange-traded funds are rising again, but an assessment said it is too early to say the market has turned decisively bullish.

On Aug. 12, CoinPost reported that market maker Wintermute said in a recent report that ETF flows have improved but sensitivity to economic indicators and policy variables remains high.

U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs logged inflows for a fifth straight session, drawing a total of $853.5 million. It was the strongest weekly trend since mid-April. Spot ethereum ETFs also took in $244.9 million, extending net inflows to a fifth straight week. Combined inflows into the two assets were around $1.1 billion. BlackRock products accounted for more than 80 percent of inflows into the two assets.

Even so, prices did not react much relative to the scale of inflows. Bitcoin rose 2.15 percent on the week, trailing the S&P 500's 3.51 percent gain over the same period. Wintermute focused on bitcoin rising less than stocks during a stretch when risk assets broadly strengthened. It suggested that selling may also be emerging somewhere in the market alongside ETF buying demand, given the divergence even in a phase when more volatility-sensitive assets typically move more.

Wintermute also pointed to inflows arriving amid low trading volume. It mentioned this as a feature seen when institutional investors build positions in a planned way. It also said the latest moves reversed a scenario it had raised over the past two weeks in which funds would flow out of bitcoin.

Still, it said conditions remain to be confirmed before turning strongly optimistic. Wintermute said improved ETF inflows are an encouraging signal, but added that one week's flow is not enough to judge whether it is a structural inflow trend. It said it will watch through the end of summer to see whether ETF buying demand and activity by digital asset treasury companies are sustained.

The cautious view is rooted in U.S. economic indicators. Wintermute said risk assets are currently in a situation where they can be easily driven by a single economic data point. It warned that depending on the U.S. consumer price index due on Aug. 12, the probability of a September rate hike could rise above 50 percent, and that could weaken support for the recent rally.

In the previous data point, the number of U.S. jobs in July fell by 23,000, far below the market forecast for an increase of 80,000. In the wake of that, the probability of a September Federal Reserve rate hike fell to 40 percent from 55 percent, and the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 4.6 percent. The change in rate expectations also dovetailed with risk-asset prices rebounding toward the weekend.

The company also cited upcoming events as market variables. Wintermute named the producer price index on Aug. 13 and retail sales on Aug. 14 as key short-term indicators. It also pointed to the Jackson Hole meeting scheduled for Aug. 27 to 29 and a scheduled vote on Sept. 15 on ending debate on the Clarity bill as events that could shape the market's direction in September.

U.S. Senate Republican leader John Thune (존 슌) began the September review process by filing a motion to invoke cloture on the Clarity bill. Wintermute viewed the bill's step forward from a prolonged pending status as positive. However, Galaxy Digital put the probability of the bill passing by 2026 at 30 percent, making it difficult for the market to move on legislative expectations alone.

Ultimately, the recent recovery in ETF inflows is a positive signal on the supply-and-demand side, but the market's current feature is that prices are not fully reflecting it. As a result, U.S. inflation and consumption indicators in the short term, and the persistence of ETF inflows and the September legislative calendar in the longer term, are emerging as key variables that will determine the next direction for the bitcoin and ethereum markets.