Bitcoin fell 20 percent over the past 90 days, underperforming the S&P 500, which rose 5 percent over the same period.

Cryptopolitan reported on Aug. 11 that on-chain analytics firm Glassnode assessed that the market would struggle to break out of a stock-led trend until bitcoin regains relative strength versus indexes.

The key point is that cryptocurrencies are posting the weakest performance among major asset classes this year. Bitcoin is down 35 percent since January, and altcoins have fallen 57 percent. Gold is up 60 percent, copper has gained 66 percent and silver has risen 107 percent. Over the same period, the Nasdaq and the Russell 2000 rose 38 percent and 31 percent, respectively, widening the gap with cryptocurrencies.

In a post on Aug. 11, Glassnode noted that the trend was the same over the past 7 days. "The past 7 days showed the same pattern," it said. "Until bitcoin regains relative strength versus indexes, the stock-led market continues." It also cited the Nasdaq's underperformance versus other major indexes as a signal that the market environment is not favorable.

Bitcoin and ether, however, moved differently from the stock market when looking only at July. In July, artificial intelligence and semiconductor-related shares saw sharp corrections, and semiconductor exchange-traded funds fell more than 20 percent. The Nasdaq 100 also slid nearly 7 percent. Even so, bitcoin rose 9 percent and ether gained 20 percent, diverging from the broader stock market.

The shift is also reflected in data showing weaker linkage between bitcoin and tech stocks. TradingView data showed bitcoin's 90-day correlation coefficient with the Nasdaq stood at 0.89 in May. But K33 Research calculated that the 30-day correlation fell to 0.43 as of July 28. The figures show decoupling from stocks, while also indicating that asset performance itself remains weaker than stocks.

BlackRock views the decoupling positively. Robert Mitchnick (로버트 미치닉), BlackRock's head of digital assets, said on Aug. 10 that bitcoin separating from stocks is a healthy signal for investors who view bitcoin as a diversification tool. He described July's performance as a turning point for the crypto market and said investor sentiment has improved noticeably but subtly over the past month.

Fund flows also showed signs of a partial recovery. Sosovalue data showed that as of Aug. 7, BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust, IBIT, had net assets of $48.51 billion. Inflows in August totaled $693.64 million. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs posted net inflows of $853.50 million in the week ended Aug. 7, the strongest weekly performance since mid-April. Of that, IBIT accounted for about $693.00 million.

The market is watching whether bitcoin can lower its correlation with stocks while also recovering its relative performance. Even if the separation from stocks continues, if bitcoin fails to break out of weakness versus major indexes, the center of fund flows is likely to remain in the stock market for the time being. If ETF inflows and improving investor sentiment persist, investors are also focusing on whether the recent decoupling could lead to a price rebound.