[DigitalToday reporter Jinju Hong] Arthur Hayes (아서 헤이즈) argued that bitcoin (BTC) could come under upward pressure if dollar liquidity expands during currency intervention by Japan and the United States.

On Aug. 11 (local time), blockchain outlet CoinPost reported that Hayes wrote in his blog post “Yen-quake” that a U.S. Treasury-led approach to managing exchange rates could work in bitcoin’s favour.

Hayes focused on the FIMA Repo facility. FIMA Repo allows foreign central banks or international organisations to raise dollars by posting U.S. Treasuries they hold as collateral at the Federal Reserve.

He presented three ways that could drive yen strength: a sharp Bank of Japan rate hike, sales of overseas assets by public institutions such as the Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF), and currency intervention using FIMA Repo.

He said a Bank of Japan rate hike and GPIF asset reallocation were less realistic because of large political and economic side effects. He said using FIMA could allow Japan to support yen strength without directly selling U.S. Treasuries into the market.

The core structure is that Japan’s finance ministry places U.S. Treasuries it holds as collateral with the Federal Reserve and borrows dollars through FIMA Repo. Japan’s finance ministry then sells the borrowed dollars in the foreign exchange market to buy yen, and uses the yen it secures to buy Japanese government bonds and stocks. Hayes argued that this method would let Japan engineer yen strength without actually selling U.S. Treasuries. At the same time, the Federal Reserve would expand its balance sheet as it supplies dollars.

Hayes estimated that the Japanese government and GPIF together hold $1.373 trillion in U.S. Treasuries that could be used as FIMA collateral. He said that is smaller than the period during COVID-19 when the Federal Reserve balance sheet expanded by about $4 trillion. He added that bitcoin, gold and gold mining stocks could still be beneficiary assets in that process.

On individual assets, he mentioned ethereum (ETH) and Ethena (ENA) together. Hayes cited ethereum as a major cryptocurrency that failed to set a new all-time high in 2025, and pointed to its role as a security layer for real-world asset (RWA) trading as the basis for that assessment.

He offered a stronger outlook for Ethena. He described Ethena as a synthetic dollar, USDe, issuance project, and said its circulating supply is down 75 percent from its peak and its price has fallen more than 90 percent. Hayes argued that ENA could rise 5 to 10 times if dollar liquidity expands and the basis yield between bitcoin spot and futures rebounds sharply.

He also directly mentioned a potential conflict of interest. Hayes said Maelstrom, where he serves as chief investment officer, has already taken a bullish bitcoin position. That amounts to disclosing his position alongside his market outlook.

In this flow, the point the market will watch is whether U.S. and Japanese monetary authorities will actually expand their use of FIMA. Hayes’ scenario focuses on strengthening the yen without Japan selling U.S. Treasuries and on increased dollar supply spreading liquidity into the crypto market. The outlet noted that the bullish outlook presented is Hayes’ personal view and that Maelstrom’s bullish bitcoin position was disclosed alongside it.