[Digital Today reporter Yoonseo Lee (이윤서)] Bitcoin set a new August high just before the weekly close, shifting the market’s focus to U.S. inflation indicators this week.

On Aug. 10 (local time), blockchain media outlet Cointelegraph reported that bitcoin climbed to $65,420 around the weekly close on Aug. 9, marking its highest level so far this month.

The key variables the market is watching are the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI). The two indicators will be released on Aug. 12 and Aug. 13, respectively. Last month’s CPI and PPI both came in below expectations, with CPI posting its biggest monthly decline since April 2020. Last week’s nonfarm payrolls data also pointed to a cooling labour market, adding weight to expectations that the Federal Reserve may hold rates in September rather than raise them again.

Analyst firm Mosaic Asset Company noted that as recently as a week ago the market saw a higher chance of a September rate increase, but has now tilted somewhat toward a hold. At the same time, it assessed that the U.S. economy is still holding up, citing Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing and services indicators.

Movements in the yen are also in focus. The New York Federal Reserve used the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) on behalf of the U.S. Treasury in early August to buy yen using euros. It was the first joint U.S.-Japan intervention since the late 1990s. The yen jumped to around 156 per dollar immediately after the intervention, but later rose back above 158.50 per dollar and moved toward the 160 yen level. Brookings Institution researcher Robin Brooks saw it as difficult to change the existing trend through such intervention alone, while QCP Capital said it is more important whether rising Japanese interest rates will change incentives for domestic funds to allocate overseas.

Looking only at bitcoin’s price action, short-term resistance is clear. BTC/USD is trading below the 50-month exponential moving average (EMA) of $65,827. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe said a strong bullish divergence is appearing in the moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) and relative strength index (RSI) on the three-day and weekly charts, and pointed to $65,800 as the next key breakout zone. He said that if $65,800 breaks, short-position liquidity could be forced out after this rangebound stretch, producing a volatile move higher.

On-chain indicators and supply-demand signals are sending mixed messages. According to CryptoQuant data, the 60-day increase in balances at addresses holding more than 10,000 BTC rose to 46,420 BTC on Aug. 9, the largest since March 15. CryptoQuant said that is almost double the mid-March accumulation peak of 23,238 BTC, adding that activity among the largest balance cohort has noticeably accelerated.

By contrast, small addresses holding 0.1 BTC to 1 BTC reduced holdings by about 9,700 BTC over the same period. It means a split is under way, with large holders increasing their share while small holders cut theirs.

Spot market activity remains weak. Glassnode co-founder Rafael Schultze-Kraft said daily spot turnover fell to 0.32 percent and dollar-denominated trading volume dropped about 64 percent from a year earlier, describing the spot market as effectively dead. He added that market participation needs to return for a healthier rise.

Medium- to long-term indicators also lean cautious for now. A basket of 45 price indicators compiled by Schultze-Kraft classified the current phase as the coldest period since the FTX collapse. It suggests a late bear-market phase, but that extreme signals seen at past bottoms have not yet been reached. Coinglass’ bull market peak indicator is also holding at 32 percent of the current sell-zone level.

This week, U.S. inflation data, the Fed path, the yen’s direction, accumulation by large holders and whether spot trading recovers are cited as factors likely to determine bitcoin’s price direction. In the near term, the key is whether resistance around $65,800 is broken. After that, a potential break out of the range suggested around Aug. 17 is expected to be the next turning point.

$BTC is ready for a breakout to atleast $73,700. To me, there's one critical level to break. That's the weekly level at $65,800. When I'm looking at the charts, I don't think we'll test lower as the arguments are simply not there. ➡️ The MACD of multiple #Altcoins look… pic.twitter.com/uZ9FlMjz4B