A study has found China could meet a large share of key materials needed for future electric vehicle production by recycling scrapped EVs and used batteries. The analysis said wider EV adoption will create new mineral demand, while in several decades scrapped cars and used batteries could become major sources for battery and motor materials supply chains.

On July 31, local time, IT outlet Ars Technica reported that a research team led by Xin Xunxiong at Nanjing University analysed recycling as a potential major source of several key elements. The team compared China’s EV manufacturing demand and the potential supply of recycled materials from 2010 to 2050.

The team assessed circularity for major materials used in hybrid vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles, battery electric vehicles and fuel cell vehicles. The analysis covered battery materials such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, manganese, phosphorus, sodium, sulphur and graphite, as well as key electric motor elements including copper, neodymium, dysprosium, samarium and cerium.

The researchers set out 4 scenarios based on the pace of technological advances and the EV adoption outlook. They calculated circularity potential, a measure of how much recycled materials could substitute for manufacturing demand in a given year.

The analysis found that as the EV market grows, the volume of scrapped vehicles and used batteries will also rise. Over time, this is expected to create a structure in which these materials flow back into the manufacturing supply chain.

In the early stage, recycled material supply is insufficient because EV sales are rising faster than scrappage. The share of recycled feedstock is expected to climb gradually as cumulative sales build and battery replacement and disposal increase.

In commercial use, batteries may reach end of life before vehicles, which was cited as a factor that could expand supply. The team said high vehicle utilisation could drive replacement demand due to battery performance degradation, and that battery swap stations spreading in China could also create additional recycling volumes.

The outlook differed by material. Cobalt demand itself could decline as the battery industry moves toward low-cobalt or cobalt-free technologies, making it a material where recycled supply could quickly exceed demand, the analysis found.

By contrast, nickel and manganese are expected to face a relatively higher risk of supply shortfalls even if the recycling share rises, due to growing demand for high-performance batteries. Rare earth elements used in electric motors could also vary depending on technological changes, and how much cerium substitutes for higher-priced rare earth materials was cited as a variable.

China’s policy direction is also a factor supporting expanded recycling. The team said China is pursuing a goal of raising recycling rates for some battery elements from about 40 percent currently to as high as 98 percent, and that policies to increase the share of EVs in new vehicle sales in 2030 to 45 to 60 percent are also expected to have an impact.

The researchers particularly stressed that a “battery passport” system to manage information on battery composition and regulations to steer used batteries to authorised recyclers are key. Efficient collection requires accurate information on battery types and materials.

But recycling does not immediately replace new mining. The team noted that achieving high circularity requires a properly built ecosystem covering the entire process from collecting used batteries to sorting and processing.

Technological change is also a variable. Materials with low economic viability, such as graphite, already lack recycling incentives, and if low-cost material-based technologies such as sodium batteries spread, battery prices could fall while the recovery value for recyclers could decline.

China’s EV supply chain is increasingly likely to shift from a structure centred on new mineral mining to a circular structure based on scrapped vehicles and used batteries. Whether recycling becomes a core source will likely depend on how quickly collection systems are built, along with changes in battery technology.