[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee (이윤서)] A technical outlook has suggested XRP could remain in a long-term trading range until August 2028.

U.Today, a blockchain media outlet, reported on July 25 that, based on Bollinger Bands, the XRP chart shows a move that repeats the 2022-2024 accumulation phase.

The key point of the analysis is that Ripple’s business expansion and XRP’s price movement can diverge. It concluded that a breakout from the long-term sideways trend could be delayed until August 2028.

It cited XRP’s past price cycle as evidence. XRP went through a deep accumulation phase for 791 days from 2022 to 2024, then rose strongly to $3.55 before entering a gradual correction. XRP is currently trading in a $1.06 to $1.10 range, and Bollinger Bands on higher time-frame charts have begun to contract again. If this pattern repeats, XRP could enter another two years of range-bound trading.

Market fund flows were also cited as pointing in the same direction. Institutional demand for spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has weakened to $2 million to $12 million a week, which was mentioned as evidence that XRP’s upside momentum may be limited. The launch of the 'Ripple Mint' platform for the RLUSD stablecoin with a market capitalisation of $1.5 billion was also described as a factor that has fuelled scepticism rather than bullish views on XRP. That is because even if banks adopt Ripple’s infrastructure, they do not necessarily need to buy XRP in the settlement process.

The U.S. regulatory environment was also cited as a variable. Prediction market Polymarket currently reflects a 42 percent chance that the Clarity bill will pass this year. That means that without an end to regulatory uncertainty, both institutions and individuals may find it difficult to increase positions aggressively.

In this situation, the market is looking at two scenarios. The bearish scenario is one in which a lack of organic demand from banks, slower ETF inflows and regulatory deadlock combine to spur retail investor selling. The bullish scenario is one in which large wallets aggressively absorb capitulation supply to build a price floor, followed by a strong technical breakout.

For now, uncertainty and weak retail demand are weighing more heavily. XRP is re-entering a long accumulation phase, and in the worst case investors may have to wait until late summer 2028, which is the backdrop to this outlook. The analysis points to the view that Ripple’s business expansion alone does not automatically translate into XRP price gains.