Soon after U.S. President Donald Trump joked about seeking a fourth term, about $16.91 million worth of TRUMP tokens were spotted moving to exchanges. It was not confirmed whether any sale took place, but the possibility that project-linked tokens could enter the market has come back into focus, increasing investor caution.

On July 25 local time, blockchain outlet CryptoSlate reported that a wallet linked to the TRUMP project recently moved 10.84 million TRUMP tokens. The tokens could be headed to exchanges via crypto custodian BitGo, it said.

It has not been confirmed whether any sale occurred so far. Still, concerns are being raised again about potential supply pressure because tokens managed by the project could continue moving into the market.

The token transfer drew more attention as it coincided with Trump’s remarks. At a White House press corps dinner, Trump held up a red "Trump 2028" hat and said, "I am glad to announce my intention to run for a fourth term as U.S. president," adding, "I won three times and now I will do it again." He soon acknowledged it was a joke, but political symbolism and interest in the meme coin bearing his name also drew attention.

The market did not take it as a realistic political variable. On prediction market Polymarket, the probability in a contract asking whether the U.S. presidential term limit would be repealed or amended was about 4 percent, and trading volume was not large at under $20,000. The 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution limits the same person from being elected president more than twice.

Market participants focused more on supply flows than politics. Wallets linked to the project moved a total of 48.25 million TRUMP tokens, worth about $172.4 million, in three transfers over the past five months. Over the same period, TRUMP’s price fell more than 66 percent and was trading at about $1.55 at the time of reporting, about 3 percent lower than 24 hours earlier.

A token transfer does not necessarily mean an immediate sale. Reasons a project may move tokens to a custodian or exchange can vary, including providing liquidity, market-making, token distribution or preparing for a future sale. But with past cases in which supply entered the market through similar routes, investors are treating the possibility of further selling itself as a burden factor.

The move also aligns with the project’s strategy to expand liquidity. The TRUMP development team said earlier this month it is placing development priorities on expanding market liquidity, securing new counterparties and expanding the ecosystem. It also disclosed plans to selectively sell or distribute part of its unlocked tokens and use the proceeds for partnerships, acquisitions and business expansion funding.

Liquidity provision within the decentralised finance ecosystem is also expanding. Through the Kamino campaign, about 114,000 TRUMP tokens were paid as incentives to liquidity providers, and the TRUMP-SOL liquidity pool grew from about $2,000 in its early launch period to as high as $1.66 million at one point in May. The project said it has also built liquidity pools on Orca and Raydium, supporting both centralised and decentralised trading environments at the same time.

Price performance remains weak. TRUMP surged to $75.35 soon after its launch in January 2025 but has since given back most of those gains. A Reuters analysis released in June said the TRUMP project has earned more than $1.2 billion in revenue so far, with about $616 million estimated to have gone to the Trump family. Cumulative investor losses were tallied at more than $700 million.

The project is also stepping up rewards programmes aimed at encouraging long-term holding. The Trump Coin Club ranks holders based on the amount held and holding period and offers top holders chances to attend major sports events.

More recently, it offered the top 19 holders benefits during the FIFA World Cup period, including attending the final at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey and access to a private suite. The next event is the Formula One Singapore Grand Prix in October, with the top 23 holders eligible for a suite programme.

The project is also teasing an event tied to Super Bowl LXI to be held in Los Angeles in 2027, expanding incentives for long-term holding. The market, however, appears more sensitive to further token movements by project-linked wallets and the possibility of increased supply than to expanded rewards programmes.