[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee (이윤서)] XRP is extending a rebound in July, rising about 5 percent so far this month.

The Crypto Basic, a blockchain media outlet, reported on July 20 that XRP rose to the $1.10 range. It is up 1.47 percent over the past 24 hours and 4.80 percent over the past week.

The key point is not the July rise itself but the historical pattern. XRP has, on average, performed well in July during years when U.S. midterm elections are held. This year is a U.S. midterm election year, and price moves so far are again raising the possibility of a repeat.

XRP started July at $1.03. It fell 1.8 percent the previous day, but the early-July tone differed from the 22 percent plunge in June. XRP rose to $1.18 in the first four days of the month, marking an intramonth high. Momentum has since weakened, but it is keeping part of the early gains. If it ends July at current levels, XRP will post its strongest monthly performance since July 2025.

Still, looking only at past figures, it is hard to say upside potential has been fully exhausted. XRP has gone through three U.S. midterm election years since listing, with this year the fourth.

In actual returns, it rose 34.21 percent in July 2014, from $0.0036 to $0.0051. In July 2018, it fell 6.97 percent, from $0.46 to $0.43. In July 2022, it rose 14.21 percent, from $0.33 to $0.37. The average performance based on those figures is about 14 percent.

If the 14 percent average gain repeats this month, XRP could end July around $1.18. That would match the intramonth high already reached. If a 34 percent rise like 2014 is repeated, it could climb to $1.39 from the start-of-July price, a level last seen in May.

The size of the June pullback is also cited as part of the basis for this outlook. XRP fell 22 percent in June, aligning with similar correction moves of a 32 percent fall in June 2022, a midterm election year, a 39 percent drop in June 2018 and a 17 percent decline in June 2014.

Still, past statistics alone cannot determine prices in the second half of July. XRP has already retreated by some margin from its intramonth high. The market is watching whether XRP strengthens its early rebound during the rest of July, or whether it fails to break resistance near $1.18 and narrows its gains.