[DigitalToday reporter Yeseul Kim] An analysis said XRP has entered a technical rebound zone after a steep first-half drop.

U.Today, a blockchain outlet, reported on Friday that XRP remains within a descending broadening wedge pattern on the daily chart. With seasonality also showing positive third-quarter closing returns for seven straight years, the report said gains of up to 50 percent are being discussed.

The key is a simultaneous signal from charts and seasonality. XRP fell 27.1 percent in the first quarter and 22.4 percent in the second, capping a weak first half. At current price levels, a signal has emerged that selling pressure is easing. On TradingView’s daily chart, XRP is trapped inside a descending broadening wedge, a pattern the article described as a "typical late-stage accumulation zone". The relative strength index (RSI) also formed a bullish divergence, and buying is defending a low around $1.05.

Seasonality also supports a rebound scenario. Based on CryptoRank tallies, XRP’s third quarter has not ended negative once over the past seven years. The current July return is 4.19 percent, not large, but past moves show XRP has repeated a pattern of recovering in midsummer after a sharp June drop. XRP fell 22.1 percent in June 2026. Examples of rebounds cited were a 47.6 percent rise in July 2023 and a 35 percent rise in July 2025.

The mid-term target range depends on whether resistance is broken. XRP is trading around $1.08, and to confirm a new uptrend, buying must break through the $1.12 to $1.18 resistance zone and hold the price above it. The article said clearing this range could open a "mid-term target of $1.45 to $1.60". That would amount to about a 50 percent rise from the current price.

Near-term variables also remain. Broad market stagnation and a temporary slowdown in funds flowing into U.S. spot XRP ETFs were cited as factors that could limit an immediate rise. It means volatility could continue until resistance is broken, even if a rebound begins.

In this situation, a price squeeze that has continued over the past six months is drawing attention as a base that could determine the next direction. The article said the current wedge-shaped rangebound move is forming a "strong bottom" ahead of the fourth quarter. It also cited XRP’s historical average fourth-quarter return as 133.3 percent. As a result, the market is likely to watch whether XRP breaks above $1.12 to $1.18 and whether third-quarter seasonality translates into an expansion of buying.