[DigitalToday reporter Jinju Hong] Bitcoin could fall to $38,000 to $39,000 in October if it continues to track a pattern similar to past bear markets, an outlook showed. The analysis said the market’s weakness reflects the impact of changes in supply structure rather than simple risk-off sentiment.

Bitcoin Magazine reported on July 15 that digital asset investment firm NYDIG said in a recent report that the current bitcoin downturn is increasingly resembling past down cycles.

Bitcoin has recently traded near $64,809, down about 30 percent from the start of the year. Compared with its record high of $126,080 set in October last year, the decline is about 50 percent. NYDIG analyzed bitcoin’s return this year as lower than U.S. Treasuries, silver and the Swiss franc, making it the worst-performing major asset.

The market has generally seen bitcoin move similarly to risk assets such as tech stocks, but this year the pattern has changed, it said. While artificial intelligence-related stocks remained strong, the cryptocurrency market stayed relatively weak. NYDIG interpreted this as a structural issue on the supply side rather than a risk-asset avoidance mindset.

The report analyzed that the current correction is increasingly taking a form similar to the bear markets of 2014, 2018 and 2022. NYDIG said, "The 2025 to 2026 bitcoin correction recalls past reset periods," adding, "The timing and structure are becoming similar to previous cycles." It did not, however, assert that this decline will follow exactly the same path as in the past.

The report projected that if a correction similar to the 2022 bear market is repeated, bitcoin’s potential cycle low could be around $38,000 to $39,000. That suggested the possibility of bitcoin falling below $40,000.

An assessment also emerged that volatility is showing a different pattern from the past. NYDIG analyzed that bitcoin recorded the lowest volatility on record in 2025, raising the possibility that this bear market could proceed more gradually than previous ones. That means the correction has lasted longer, but the overall decline could be smaller than in past cycles.

NYDIG also presented changes in correlations surrounding bitcoin’s character. It said bitcoin’s price correlation with gold increased in the second quarter this year. This was interpreted as both assets coming under selling pressure. Bitcoin has been dubbed "digital gold," but last year it showed a high correlation with the U.S. stock market, centered on tech stocks.

In the second quarter this year, the broader commodities market also weakened. NYDIG said the "debasement trade" that led markets last year also lost strength, and explained that it is hard to view bitcoin’s weakness as a problem of a single asset alone.

As a factor supporting expectations of a market recovery, changes in the U.S. regulatory environment were cited. Bitwise said in a report last week that bitcoin ended its deepest and longest decline since the bear market after the second quarter of 2026, but assessed that as pro-cryptocurrency legislation advances, the groundwork supporting a quick recovery is in place.

NYDIG also pointed to the market structure law, the "Clarity Act," as the most important leading catalyst for the digital asset industry. NYDIG said, "Bitcoin may not see as large a direct price impact as altcoins or crypto-related stocks," but added, "If the U.S. market structure framework becomes clearer, the industry as a whole will benefit."

Ultimately, an outlook emerged that in the short term, supply-and-demand burdens and the possibility of a replay of past cycles could test the downside of bitcoin’s price. In contrast, if an institutional regulatory framework is put in place, a key point to watch will be whether the investment environment across the cryptocurrency industry improves before bitcoin itself.