Bitcoin has broken above the $64,000 resistance level, but an analysis says signals indicating a long-term downtrend remain valid.

On July 15 local time, blockchain outlet Decrypt reported that the market is focusing less on the breakout itself than on whether the price can settle at that level.

Bitcoin rose as high as $65,511 intraday on July 14, but it is difficult to say it has fully escaped the downward channel formed after it hit a peak near $82,000 on May. A drop of about 5 percent from the current price would put it back inside the channel.

Technical indicators are also sending mixed signals. The "dead cross," a major long-term bearish signal, has yet to be resolved. While the 50-day moving average remains below the 200-day moving average, there are still no signs that the gap between the two is narrowing.

In the short term, there have also been signs that the downtrend is weakening. The average directional index, or ADX, stood at 23.4. The market generally sees ADX 25 as the baseline for a clear trend. While Bitcoin has not fully exited a bearish zone, the directional indicator was analysed as entering a phase of shifting from seller dominance to buyer dominance.

The macroeconomic environment is working in favour of risk assets. As the U.S. producer price index for June came in below market expectations, the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike in July fell sharply. CME FedWatch showed the probability of a rate hike fell to 12.3 percent on the day from 31 percent last week.

U.S. stocks also rose the same day. The S&P 500 gained 0.39 percent and the Nasdaq rose 0.67 percent. The volatility index, or VIX, which reflects market anxiety, fell to 16.5.

Caution still dominates in the crypto market. Prediction market Myriad priced in a 66.6 percent chance that Bitcoin falls to $55,000 before it rises to $84,000. The chance of reaching $84,000 first was 33.4 percent. With those probabilities little changed even after Bitcoin rebounded, market participants were interpreted as not viewing this breakout as a definitive trend reversal.

In the near term, whether it can hold the $64,000 level is seen as the key variable. If Bitcoin holds this price for several days, it could test the next resistance zone of $66,500 to $67,600. If upward momentum strengthens, $70,000 could also come into view. If buying weakens, the previously broken $62,952 to $63,354 range could again be tested as the first support level.

Bitcoin is continuing a tug of war between macroeconomic support and technical bearish signals. It has succeeded in breaking above the $64,000 resistance line, but the analysis says confirming a trend reversal requires a process of settling stably at that level.