Three positive signals supporting the possibility of a short-term rebound in the bitcoin market have emerged, but it is still too early to judge it as the start of a full-fledged uptrend, an analysis showed. The market is showing resilience to downward pressure, but the durability of inflows and the stabilisation of macroeconomic variables need additional confirmation.

CoinPost, a blockchain media outlet, reported on Tuesday that crypto market maker Wintermute said in a recent report that the bitcoin market is showing signs of forming a short-term bottom, but there is not enough evidence to be confident about a trend reversal.

Wintermute cited bitcoin's price resilience as the first positive signal. Bitcoin held the $62,000 support line despite the geopolitical negative of U.S. air strikes on Iran. Wintermute said the market needs a structure in which bad news does not trigger additional chain selling even after leveraged liquidations for the market to enter a recovery phase, and it assessed recent moves as consistent with that.

The second is a change in fund flows. Net outflows from U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs that had continued for 8 straight weeks stopped and shifted back to net inflows. Wintermute has previously presented a reversal in ETF fund flows as one of the key conditions for a market recovery, and it analysed that this time two conditions were met simultaneously along with price resilience.

The third is that the market absorbed Strategy's large-scale bitcoin sales without strain. Strategy sold about 3,588 BTC worth $216 million from June 29 to July 5 to raise funds for preferred dividend payments. It was the company's biggest sale since it revised its previous stance of effectively "not selling bitcoin."

In the past, even small sales by Strategy shook market sentiment, but this time the price impact was limited despite much larger volume. Wintermute assessed that investors are paying more attention to the fact that the company's bitcoin cash-out strategy is working as planned than to the sale itself.

Wintermute stressed, however, that it is difficult to conclude a resumption of a bull market based on these signals alone. The report said that confirming trend recovery requires not a short-term rebound but continued price gains and inflows.

The macroeconomic environment also remains an important variable. Wintermute cited a recent surge in international oil prices and U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy as key factors. It analysed that if the U.S. consumer price index is released below market expectations, the likelihood of rate hikes would fall and could be positive for the crypto market. The latest U.S. June CPI showed inflation easing, weakening some expectations for rate hikes.

In contrast, caution continues in the derivatives market. In the bitcoin options market, demand for put options to hedge downside risk was greater than for call options betting on gains. That is interpreted as a sign that investors are maintaining defensive positions in the short term, unlike the stability seen in the spot market.

Wintermute cited whether ETF inflows persist, the situation in the Middle East, and geopolitical risk surrounding the Strait of Hormuz as key variables going forward. It also pointed to the U.S. Congress's handling of the CLARITY bill as a factor that could affect market sentiment.

Ultimately, the analysis said the bitcoin market has withstood recent downward pressure and built some foundation for a short-term rebound, but whether a bull market resumes will be confirmed only if additional conditions are met, including sustained inflows and a stable macroeconomic environment.