Bitcoin has moved into a defence phase around $62,000 as risk assets broadly weakened on rising U.S.-Iran tensions.
On July 13, Cointelegraph reported that bitcoin extended losses around the U.S. stock market open and edged closer to $62,000.
Market jitters grew after U.S. President Donald Trump said in a Fox News interview that the United States would directly operate the Strait of Hormuz. The remarks followed Iran's closure of the strait over the weekend.
Trump said, "Maybe they will call the United States the guardian angel of the Strait," adding, "We should be compensated for it." After the comments, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude held at elevated levels around $75 a barrel.
Risk aversion was also reflected in the cryptocurrency market. Selling pressure persisted after a sharp drop shortly after the weekly close, and an assessment said short positions rose rapidly around the open in New York. Market analysis account JDK Analysis said a large amount of shorts flowed in during the decline before the New York open, and pointed out that the current price is near the exchange-wide volume-weighted average price (mVWAP), a key level bulls need to defend.
JDK said selling is also emerging in the spot market, leaving market momentum still weak. It added that if real spot demand comes in during the New York session and that price level holds, a rebound could pressure short positions. It also warned that if the defence fails, $60,000 could come back into view.
Other market participants also flagged downside pressure. Analyst Exitpump said an unusually large number of aggressive short positions are building up and saw open interest continuing to rise. The increase in derivatives positions despite falling prices is read as a signal of expanding short-term volatility.
Some traders, however, left open the possibility of a short-term rebound. Trader Roman said several price indicators, including the relative strength index and volume, suggest downward momentum is being exhausted. He said he expects a move higher, with the remaining variable being what form that process takes.
The market is also discussing a prevailing view that bitcoin could try to climb further later this month and then resume a weaker trend. Some still see the possibility of a bottom forming in the third quarter in tandem with the macro environment. In the near term, whether support holds near $62,000 and $60,000, and whether spot demand flows in during the New York session, have emerged as key variables for bitcoin's direction.
The Hormuz Strait is OPEN, and will remain OPEN, with or without Iran. We are reinstating the THE IRANIAN BLOCKADE, so named because it is only stopping Iran’s ships or customers from entering or leaving. All other countries will have fair and open use of the Strait. The U.S.A.… pic.twitter.com/m81hb9Nl3p