Bitcoin is extending a weak run after failing to clear resistance at $64,000 and sliding to around $62,500. Cointelegraph reported on Sunday that markets are also watching geopolitical variables tied to the U.S.-Iran war alongside U.S. inflation data and the interest rate path.

Bitcoin fell after coming under selling pressure soon after the weekly close. It also tried to rebound several times last week but failed to break above $64,000, reaffirming that level as a short-term resistance line.

Views diverged on when the downturn could end. Trader Riker said that, as many in the market believe the 2026 bear-market bottom is still ahead, market makers could get ahead of crowd psychology and start a longer-term rebound earlier. That view aligns with expectations that a bitcoin bull market could return as early as September. Other analyses also said it is still too early to reverse the current downtrend.

Some also raised the possibility of further declines. Lennart Snyder said selling has been confirmed in both spot and perpetual futures markets and funding rates remain high, presenting $63,600 as the next area to enter bitcoin short positions. He saw a new low below $57,800 as the healthiest scenario.

Zelle, however, pointed to the possibility of a rebound, citing a dead cross in the weekly chart’s 50-week and 100-week simple moving averages. He said the signal in the past also appeared near the end of bear markets, maintaining the possibility of a short-term rebound to $70,000.

The key variable this week is the macro environment. After Iran said it would close the Strait of Hormuz until further notice, U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose to $75 a barrel, up about 12 percent from a July low. Nick Puckrin (닉 퍼크린), chief executive of Coin Bureau, pointed out that the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield rose above 2.35 percent to the highest level in 16 months.

Some in the market saw Japan’s bond market as a bigger factor than Middle East developments. Michaël van de Poppe (미하엘 판 더 포페) said the pullback is more related to a sharp rise in Japanese rates than to Middle East issues. The U.S. June consumer price index and producer price index are due this week, and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh (케빈 워시) is set to deliver a semiannual monetary policy report soon after the CPI release. The market currently expects rates to be held through September, while putting more weight on the possibility of a 0.25 percentage point increase in September.

On-chain indicators also diverged. CryptoQuant data showed that wallets holding 100 to 1,000 BTC net distributed about 67,000 BTC on Sunday. That was the strongest selling activity since a distribution of about 47,000 BTC on Feb. 19. The group has also tended in the past to reduce holdings before bitcoin price reversals. A slowdown in inflows to Binance and Coinbase Prime since mid-July was also observed.