An analysis said bitcoin may have entered an accumulation phase as it nears a long-term support line. U.Today, a blockchain media outlet, reported on Saturday that Fidelity Investments’ global macro director Julien Timmer (줄리엔 티머) saw a possibility that bitcoin has reached a psychological and mathematical bottom range.

He wrote on X that bitcoin could be in an accumulation phase and, at $60,000, is moving closer to the power law support line.

Fidelity’s power law model assumes bitcoin’s price moves within a range around a long-term trend line. It has interpreted moves to the upper band as a distribution phase and moves closer to the lower band as a key buying opportunity.

Fidelity cited past major peaks at $1,137, $19,042 and $64,337. By contrast, the 2014 to 2015 bear-market low was $230, and the power law support line at the time was calculated at $252. In the 2018 downturn, the price was $3,204 and the estimated support line was $2,521. The 2022 crypto-winter low of $16,366 also met a $15,006 support line.

For lower-band indicators, it used the price deviation from the power law trend line and the 52-week Z-score of the bitcoin-gold ratio. Fidelity used this combination to gauge the degree of market exhaustion.

In weekly data, bitcoin was put at $62,685 and the long-term power law support line at around $56,488. The deviation was minus 56 percent, and the 52-week Z-score of the bitcoin-gold ratio was minus 100 percent. Timmer explained that when the Z-score falls into a range of minus 100 percent to minus 120 percent, as in late 2014, late 2018 and late 2022, it suggests bitcoin is mathematically exhausted versus gold.