JPMorgan views the potential spread of private blockchains as a bigger structural risk to bitcoin than Strategy’s bitcoin selling.

On July 9 (local time), foreign media including Bitcoin Magazine and The Block reported that JPMorgan said the wider crypto ecosystem could face pressure to be re-rated if tokenisation, payments and clearing become established on permissioned infrastructure rather than public networks.

The market has recently focused on Strategy’s sale of 3,588 bitcoin for $216 million in early July to fund dividends on preferred shares. It was the company’s largest disposal on record. Such selling could increase selling pressure in the short term, but JPMorgan did not see this as bitcoin’s main threat. An analysis team led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said the focus of the structural threat is not the asset itself but where tokenisation, payments and clearing take place.

JPMorgan focused on permissioned blockchains. Institutions have preferred permissioned networks for reasons including privacy, know-your-customer and anti-money-laundering controls, governance, throughput, legal liability and regulatory certainty. This choice could become a competitive burden for public networks such as Ethereum.

The Bank for International Settlements has also shown similar concerns. It has warned against using public permissionless chains for systemically important financial infrastructure and has proposed an alternative “unified ledger” that places tokenised central bank money, bank deposits and assets within a regulated framework. That means key functions related to digital assets could be absorbed outside public chains.

This trend is clearer in tokenised deposits. Tokenised deposits are digital claims on bank deposit balances and sit within the framework of bank regulation and deposit insurance. JPMorgan said that if such deposits spread in a non-transferable form preferred by regulators, they could push out public stablecoins in inter-institution payments. It also cited SWIFT’s blockchain project and central bank digital currency efforts such as the digital euro and digital yuan as factors strengthening regulated routes.

The real-world asset tokenisation market was also read in the same direction. The market is currently about $50 billion, and a substantial portion is still on Ethereum. JPMorgan interpreted this not as the final structure but as an early experimental stage. It said issuance, custody and clearing functions could move to private infrastructure as the market matures, leaving public chains with a distribution and interoperability role.

Examples involving the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation and Securitize were presented as signs of this trend. JPMorgan also questioned whether real-time clearing on public chains is the most efficient approach for regulated firms. It judged that deferred settlement and net settlement could be more advantageous in terms of capital savings.

JPMorgan did not view this scenario as a fixed conclusion. The report also presented three possible counterarguments. A hybrid model in which public and permissioned chains both play important roles could emerge, and stablecoin adoption could strengthen under friendly regulation. It also said bitcoin could still retain its role as digital gold and a means of avoiding value dilution, separate from other crypto markets.

The U.S. Clarity bill was also cited as a variable. Even if the bill passes this year, it could lend support to bank-issued deposit tokens over public stablecoins, which could instead be unfavourable for public networks. As a result, the market’s focus is shifting from the bitcoin price itself to which chain tokenised assets and institutional payment infrastructure ultimately settle on.