[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee] An analysis said bitcoin may have entered the final stage of forming a bear-market bottom as it has traded below a key cost baseline for about 5 months.

According to blockchain media outlet The Crypto Basic on July 9 (local time), bitcoin has been below the True Market Mean of $76,600 and the short-term holder cost basis of $72,200 since early February.

Over the past week, bitcoin rebounded from about $58,300 to as high as $64,400 but remains below the 2 key price lines. On-chain analytics firm Glassnode noted this suggests the market remains weak. In the past, longer periods below such cost baselines often coincided with the early stage of bottom formation, but it said it is difficult to conclude that a bottom has been confirmed this time as well.

Glassnode warned bitcoin could slide further to around $53,000, the realised price level, before confirming a bottom. It said the market has entered a "deep value zone" but there is still no clear bottom signal.

Long-term holders were identified as the main sellers in this downturn. The share of long-term holders in total realised losses jumped to 43 percent recently from 15 percent in early February. Investors who bought near the market peak held on through losses for months, but as the bear market dragged on their confidence weakened and they began selling, the analysis said.

The long-term holder adjusted realised loss indicator also rose to about $280 million a day, the highest since December 2022. Glassnode judged this to be the second large capitulation wave in the current bear market. It said selling pressure has not yet eased, unlike the previous capitulation phase, suggesting the market has not reached the stage of "full seller exhaustion".

Institutional demand showed some signs of improvement, but the recovery was limited. Average daily outflows from spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) fell to $88.9 million from $193 million. The pace of outflows slowed, but the flows have not turned to net inflows.

Daily ETF trading volume also stayed at about $650 million to $950 million. That is about 80 percent lower than the peak in October 2025, making it difficult to say institutional participation has meaningfully recovered.

Sentiment in the derivatives market eased somewhat from extreme bearishness. The options put-call ratio fell to 0.56, the lowest level so far in 2026. It signals reduced demand for downside bets, but the options market still showed demand for protection against further declines.

Several conditions remain for a final confirmation of bottom formation. Long-term holder selling must slow, ETF flows must stabilise, and bitcoin must reclaim key levels such as the True Market Mean and the short-term holder cost basis. Until those conditions are met, there are only signals that the bear market may be entering its closing phase, and it is difficult to be certain of a full-fledged recovery.