Bitcoin is drawing attention on July 10 local time as it approaches a $1.4 billion Deribit options expiry, with focus on whether it can defend the $62,000 support level.

According to blockchain outlet Cointelegraph, bitcoin recovered the $63,000 level on the day. The market is staying cautious as it reflects both the rise in U.S. 10-year Treasury yields and the burden of options expiry.

A key variable is U.S. Treasury yields. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield neared 4.6 percent, and the market sees it as a sign of unease over expanding U.S. government debt and the possibility of further monetary policy expansion to prevent a recession. In this environment, bitcoin moved sideways without a clear direction even as the Nasdaq 100 index stayed 4 percent below its record high.

Another headwind is the concentration of funds in the stock market. As AI-related stocks continued to rise, a flow emerged within risk assets in which funds moved to stocks rather than cryptocurrencies. In the semiconductor sector, Arm Holdings rose 10 percent, while AMD and Micron gained 7 percent each. The market sees this strength as a factor drawing funds away from other investment destinations.

On flows, spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded $85 million in net outflows on July 8. The market view is that this is not enough to conclude that institutional flows have reversed. In the options market, call option volume has exceeded put option volume over the past four days, reducing demand for bearish bets somewhat.

Looking at this week's expiry window, interests by price level are relatively clear. Call options below $62,500 totaled $137 million, while put options above $61,000 totaled $121 million. If bitcoin rises above $63,500 by expiry, the advantage for the bullish side grows to $190 million. If it stays below $61,000, the bearish-side advantage is about $100 million. That leads to a calculation that, absent additional bad news, incentives for the bearish camp are not large.

Macro variables can also directly affect short-term prices. A temporary ceasefire in the Middle East could ease recession worries and prompt bond money to rotate into risk markets. If war surrounding Iran intensifies and oil prices rise, market pressure could increase again. The market is watching over the next week whether Treasury yields calm and whether oil prices jump again.

So far, some see limited potential for the $62,000 support to be shaken sharply in the near term because put-buying has been limited. Even if a short-term relief rally emerges, macro support would be needed for gains to continue. Bitcoin could exit a pause if it clears options expiry smoothly and rises above $63,500, but upside momentum could be limited if U.S. Treasury yields and the risk-asset preference trend do not change.