[DigitalToday intern reporter Seungah Yoo] Shares of SpaceX, the aerospace and defence company led by Elon Musk, closed at $148 on July 8, staying below the $150 first-trade price for a second straight day.

CNBC reported on July 8 that SpaceX failed to sustain its early surge after listing despite expected inflows tied to its inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 index.

SpaceX debuted in the stock market on June 12 and joined the Nasdaq 100 on July 7, less than a month later. The inclusion reflected amended exchange rules for newly listed companies. Index funds and exchange-traded funds tracking the Nasdaq 100 had to buy SpaceX shares to match the new index composition. Buying of about $4.3 billion was expected from index-tracking funds including QQQ alone.

Index inclusion itself did not translate into support for the share price. The buying by index-tracking money was analysed to have been mostly exhausted before the inclusion date, leaving limited capacity to push the stock higher on the day. The move resembled the case in which Palantir fell 25 percent over several weeks after joining the Nasdaq 100 in December 2024.

SpaceX shares jumped about 50 percent over three trading sessions immediately after listing, then gave back most of the gains over the next three sessions. It hit a record closing high of $201.80 on June 16, but after a pullback the July 8 close slipped back below the $150 first-trade price.

The fundraising was large. SpaceX raised a total of $85.7 billion as its lead underwriters exercised the overallotment option, known as a greenshoe. The company initially offered 555.6 million shares at $135 per share.

Valuation concerns are also being raised. SpaceX's price-to-sales ratio stands at around 110 times, 25 percent higher than Rocket Lab, which has the Nasdaq 100's second-highest valuation at 88 times. Critics say such a high valuation is hard to justify given significant uncertainty over future revenue from new artificial intelligence businesses.

Supply constraints are another factor. Only 3 to 5 percent of shares are currently tradable in the public market. SpaceX plans to release early-unlock shares in stages over 180 days, with supply starting to increase after its earnings announcement on Aug. 6. Aug. 6 is expected to be the first turning point for changes in the supply-demand structure.

Market assessments remain mostly positive. Morgan Stanley began coverage with an "overweight" rating and a $300 target price. Bernstein set an "outperform" rating and $239, while RBC also gave an "outperform" rating with $225. UBS set a "buy" rating and a 12-month target of $210.

The case for bullish views is relatively clear. They see SpaceX as a leader in reusable rocket technology and launch services, and say its Starlink satellite internet service also has a large-scale base. They also pointed to room for both businesses to further improve profitability as a strength.

Growth expectations have also expanded beyond the space business. Some analysts cited potential growth drivers including the possibility that SpaceX could develop agent-based coding tools, AI products and services capable of competing with Anthropic's Claude or OpenAI's Codex, and even an orbital data centre.

There are also cautious views. MoffettNathanson began coverage with a "neutral" rating, and CFRA recommended selling. Valuation concerns and uncertainty over new AI businesses are cited as the backdrop to that caution.

Ultimately, the recent share decline is seen as the result of a combination of factors: a natural pullback as early post-listing overheating cools, the exhaustion of a pre-priced Nasdaq 100 inclusion catalyst, and wariness about a high valuation. Key points to watch include the Aug. 6 earnings announcement and early share unlocks, whether profitability improves at Starlink and in launch services, and how much AI growth expectations are reflected in results.