[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee (이윤서)] XRP is coming under renewed downward pressure after failing to break above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA).

On July 2 (local time), blockchain outlet The Crypto Basic reported that XRP has been unable to break out of a downtrend that has lasted nearly a year after failing to reclaim a key resistance level last month.

The key point is that the June rebound did not lead to a trend reversal. Buyers tried to regain momentum with a rebound in mid-June, but the intraday high was capped at $1.30. That suggests further declines remain possible unless it can settle above the 50-day line.

On the daily chart, XRP has been moving within a descending channel since recording a cycle high of $3.66 in July 2025. Each rebound during this period turned lower at levels below the prior peak, followed by renewed declines. On June 15, XRP also climbed to near the 50-day moving average, but the high was limited to $1.30 and it failed to break above the $1.32 resistance trendline.

XRP then fell by about 18 percent to around $1.09. It is currently being supported near the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement trendline, but it remains below key resistance, leading to the view that downside pressure is stronger than buying interest.

Analysts also pointed to similarities with past declines on the chart. The previous two corrections within the descending channel fell about 50 percent and 53 percent, respectively, before forming new lows and then staging temporary rebounds. In the first correction, XRP slid to $1.81 in November 2025, and the second extended to $1.12 on Feb. 6. Because the current decline has not yet reached that scale, the analysis says another downswing could remain if the same pattern repeats and XRP fails to reclaim the 50-day line.

The next downside target presented is a 50.33 percent correction from $1.60, the rebound high from the March low. That level overlaps with $0.815, where the 100-day moving average sits. The 100-day moving average is a long-term trend indicator that acted as a key support area in the previous market cycle. XRP formed a bottom near this indicator in June 2022, and it rebounded from this area again in November 2024 before moving to higher prices.

At present, $0.815 is about 23 percent below the current price and also aligns with the lower band of the descending channel. That is why it is cited as a level that could determine medium- to long-term support.

Still, in the short term, the $1 level is holding. XRP rebounded from $1.02 on July 2 and recovered to around $1.06. Trading volume remains subdued. Open interest edged up over the past 24 hours to $2.31 billion. That suggests market participants are maintaining a "cautious approach."

As a result, the short-term focus narrows to 2 points: whether the $1 support holds and whether XRP can reclaim the 50-day moving average. If it fails to regain the 50-day line, the possibility of an additional correction to $0.815 remains. If it succeeds in reclaiming resistance, the recent declining structure could weaken.