XRP's monthly commodity channel index (CCI) fell to its lowest level in 6 years.

On July 1 (local time), blockchain media outlet The Crypto Basic reported that XRP fell about 22 percent in June, and the monthly CCI ended at -134.61.

A CCI reading below -100 is generally interpreted as an oversold zone. In July, XRP edged up 0.61 percent to $1.04487, but the CCI fell further to -137.30. With the current price well below the 20-period average, it can be read as a sign that selling pressure may be difficult to sustain in the short term.

The figure is similar to the March 2020 market plunge triggered by the COVID-19 shock. At the time, XRP slid below $0.20 and the CCI hit a low of -140.67. XRP later recovered to around $1.96 over about 1 year.

Even so, it is difficult to say the same rebound will be repeated this time. The drop then was a sharp decline driven by an external shock, but the current correction has been continuing gradually within a falling channel since the fourth quarter of 2025.

Technically, there are also some signals that could fuel expectations of a rebound. The auxiliary signal line stands at -3.69, while the main CCI is -137.30, leaving a wide gap between the two lines. The market sees such a structure as leaving room for a future crossover, but no actual crossover has yet appeared. An oversold signal alone cannot confirm a trend reversal, and the condition remains that the price itself must show a strong recovery.

The monthly Ichimoku Cloud indicator also supports a bearish setup. The conversion line is at $1.79398 and the base line at $2.02423, both above the current price. With the conversion line below the base line, the short-term trend is also interpreted as not having broken out of a major downtrend.

By the indicators, XRP is holding below the bearish zone. Leading span A is at $1.90910 and leading span B at $1.97650, forming a bearish cloud in which leading span B is higher than A. As a result, the $1.90910 to $1.97650 range is acting as a key resistance zone, and XRP needs to break above it to shift to a neutral setup.

The price level the market is watching more closely is the $1 line. XRP is trading at $1.04487, barely above $1. If it closes below $1 on a monthly basis, a key zone that served as support in the early phase of the 2024 rally could break. In that case, the next support is cited at $0.87493, and below that at $0.66158.

Upper resistance is also clear. XRP first needs to rise above $1.20, and then break through the $1.40 to $1.60 range presented as the top of the falling channel. Even after that, it would need to clear the conversion line, the cloud and the base line in turn, leaving a meaningful technical burden.

In the end, XRP has moved deep into the oversold zone on the indicators, but the monthly trend is still dominated by bearishness. Even if a short-term rebound signal appears, the situation makes it hard to see a trend reversal until defense of the $1 support level and a break through major resistance are confirmed.