XRP has fallen more than 71 percent from its all-time high (ATH) set in July 2025, putting a possible additional adjustment based on past cycles back in focus.

The blockchain outlet The Crypto Basic reported on June 30 (local time) that XRP is at $1.04, which is 71.4 percent below its July 2025 peak of $3.66.

This drop is seen as a bearish move that followed a long period of sideways trading, rather than a simple pullback. XRP is the No. 6 cryptocurrency by market value, but it has kept falling since the peak and has been pushed to its lowest price range in years. The focus is not the 70 percent-plus decline itself, but a repeated past pattern in which drops of this size were followed by further plunges.

Past cases show that a 70 percent-plus correction did not mean a bottom. In January 2018, XRP rose to $3.35 and then hit a low of $0.56 in February that year, with an end-of-month close of $0.88. That was a fall of about 74 percent from the peak. But that was not the bottom. XRP continued to decline for months, falling to $0.10 in March 2020. The fact that a further plunge followed the initial 74 percent correction was cited as the basis for this analysis.

A similar pattern appeared in the 2021 cycle. XRP rose to $1.97 in April 2021 and then slid to $0.508 within two months, a drop of about 74 percent. But the decline did not stop there, and XRP formed a bottom at $0.28 in June 2022. That was an additional fall of about 45 percent after the first correction.

Applying those precedents suggests the current decline may not be over. Analysts said if the current 71.5 percent drop is a similar phase to the past, XRP could fall another 25 to 30 percent to around $0.78 to $0.73. They added that this outlook relies entirely on a cycle-based scenario and is not a firm conclusion.

The market is also offering a contrasting reading. In the two past cases, 70 percent-plus plunges appeared within the first two months after a peak formed, but this time it took 11 months for the decline to reach 71 percent. That makes simple comparisons difficult because the pace and phase of the decline differ from the past.

A flash crash on Binance in October 2025 is also cited as a variable. XRP plunged to $0.77 at the time, which was about a 79 percent drop from the current all-time high. Some analysts see that plunge as possibly corresponding to the first major capitulation zone in past cycles. If so, the current move may still be the later part of a correction phase rather than the start of a new decline.

In the short term, the key is whether XRP can defend the $1 level. XRP is holding above the $1 support line, but there are warnings that losing this area could open the door to a deeper correction. If price action stabilises over the coming weeks, it could also help confirm whether this drop was a different type of correction from the past.

Ultimately, the main issue in the XRP market is not the 70 percent-plus fall itself, but what pattern follows it. In the two past full cycles, additional declines continued even after a large first drop. This time, the pace of the decline and the mid-cycle plunge differed, making whether XRP holds the $1 level over the coming weeks more likely to determine the next direction.