[DigitalToday reporter Jinju Hong (홍진주)] XRP has fallen below $1.06, seen as a key support level, raising the possibility of an additional drop of up to 30%.

U.Today, a blockchain outlet, reported on June 30 that cryptocurrency analyst Ali Martinez said on-chain data and technical indicators show XRP has lost an important defensive line. He said the next downside target could be an area 22 to 32% below the current price.

The analysis starts at $1.06. Realised price distribution data shows more than 830 million XRP traded in this zone, and the market viewed the level as a core defensive line for buyers. By late June 30, XRP had slipped below the heavy trading zone and fell to $1.03.

The issue is what comes after the break. As holdings bought around $1.06 move into loss territory, that level is increasingly likely to turn into strong resistance on any rebound. In his analysis, Martinez said $1.06 is XRP’s key support floor. If the level holds, rebound scenarios toward $1.27 and $1.35 open up, but a daily close below $1.06 could trigger a deeper fall to $0.80, $0.62 and $0.51.

The report also noted the market is not immediately sliding into a sharp drop. Supply and demand among XRP holders are split. Large investors are actively cutting holdings as liquidity flows out of the broader crypto market. Retail investors, meanwhile, are absorbing selling. The number of daily active addresses on the XRP network rose about 50% to around 40,000.

Technical indicators are also sending mixed signals in the short term. On the daily chart, the TD Sequential indicator flashed a local rebound signal. Martinez said that without a return above $1.06, such rebound attempts could amount to only a temporary pause. Even with a rebound signal, the bearish trend does not change if the key price zone is not regained.

On the weekly basis, XRP has also faced resistance at the top of a long-term rising channel. Based on this setup, two downside targets were presented. First, $0.80 was cited as the middle of the trading channel and the nearest zone with strong volume. Next, $0.70 was mentioned as a key target where the lower end of the long-term trend overlaps with a past accumulation zone.

What market participants are watching is the weekly close and whether XRP regains $1.06. With whale selling continuing, retail investors’ unease is growing. If the price stays below $1.06, the likelihood of a 30% drop could rise further. If the level is reclaimed, the short-term rebound scenario could regain momentum.