Tesla's consensus forecast for vehicle deliveries in the second quarter of 2026 was tallied at 406,024. On June 26, local time, EV-focused outlet Electrek reported the figure was disclosed by Tesla on its investor relations page and was compiled from estimates by 22 Wall Street analysts.

If the forecast is realised, it would be a 5.7 percent increase from 384,122 deliveries in the second quarter last year. The increase is not large. Tesla's annual sales have fallen for two consecutive years, and the prevailing view is that any rebound this year will be limited.

By model, the Model 3 and Model Y are expected to account for most of the total at 392,625. Other models, including the Model S, Model X and Cybertruck, are forecast at 12,978. That is down from 16,130 in the first quarter of 2026, meaning the share of high-margin models and new vehicles remains low.

Tesla drew a line on these estimates, saying it does not endorse analysts' information, recommendations or conclusions. Still, all figures after the second quarter were presented as consensus estimates. The median estimate for total second-quarter deliveries was 408,609.

The bigger issue is the annual outlook. Wall Street's consensus for total 2026 deliveries is 1,654,808, with a median of 1,667,842. Given Tesla delivered about 1.64 million vehicles in 2025, annual growth this year would be around 1 percent.

The annual forecast has also recently fallen. In the consensus as of the first quarter that Tesla released in March, 2026 deliveries were put at 1,689,691, but the latest estimate is down by about 35,000. That suggests the market is taking a more conservative view than before on the pace of recovery this year.

Long-term forecasts assume growth. Under the consensus, deliveries rise to 1,824,568 in 2027, 2,065,389 in 2028, 2,365,715 in 2029 and 2,649,054 in 2030. Uncertainty is also large. The standard deviation for the 2030 estimate is 760,600, meaning analysts' views on Tesla's sales scale over the next several years differ widely.

Tesla's other pillar, its energy storage business, showed a relatively brighter trend. Energy storage deployments in the second quarter of 2026 are expected at 13.8 GWh. That is a sharp increase from the first-quarter actual of 8.8 GWh. On an annual basis, deployments are forecast to expand to 57.9 GWh, 79.8 GWh in 2027 and 150.1 GWh in 2030.

The competitive environment for the vehicle business is also a burden. Tesla narrowly regained the top spot in global EV sales from BYD in the first quarter of 2026, but that was driven more by a decline in BYD's domestic sales after China ended its EV purchase tax exemption than by a surge in Tesla sales. Tesla relied on its Shanghai plant for about 60 percent of its global volume in the first quarter, and the Model 3 and Model Y accounted for about 95 percent of total deliveries.

First-quarter results also remain a negative factor. Tesla delivered 358,023 vehicles, below the consensus estimate of 365,645, and its unsold inventory vehicles also exceeded 50,000. Against that backdrop, the 406,024 target for the second quarter was presented as achievable, but it is far from the high-growth phase the market expects.

The points to watch are whether a rebound in vehicle sales actually emerges and whether the low-cost model and growth drivers that underpin the long-term outlook materialise. The current consensus reflects both modest growth in 2026 and an expansion of the energy storage business, but the strength of any recovery in the vehicle business remains limited.