A key U.S. cryptocurrency market regulatory bill known as the CLARITY Act is now seen as less likely to pass within the year. With delays in the Senate calendar emerging as a bigger variable than the bill’s content, market expectations have cooled somewhat.

Bitcoin Magazine reported on June 26 that Galaxy Digital’s research unit lowered the odds of the CLARITY bill being enacted this year to 50 percent from 60 percent.

Galaxy said its assessment of the bill itself had not changed. Researcher Alex Thorn cited a lack of Senate floor time and delays in legislative procedures as the biggest reasons.

The CLARITY bill passed the Senate Banking Committee on May 14 by 15 to 9 and is listed as No. 423 on the Senate’s legislative calendar. A floor vote has not been scheduled, and procedures to begin consideration of the bill have not started.

The CLARITY bill is a key piece of legislation aimed at overhauling the U.S. digital asset regulatory framework. It sets out separate oversight authority for the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and establishes standards for determining whether a digital asset is a security or a commodity. It also includes the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act to protect blockchain developers and node operators.

Procedures have become more complicated than expected since it cleared the Senate Banking Committee. In the Senate, the Agriculture Committee also has jurisdiction over the bill, and work is under way to merge the two committees’ bills into one. A draft of the merged bill has not been released.

There is also limited time. The Senate is expected to recess from late July through August, meaning committee text harmonisation, floor scheduling, debate and handling of amendments must all be completed before then. After that, the House would still need to review the bill passed by the Senate.

Thorn stressed that the schedule is the most important variable. He said Senate Republican Leader John Thune must announce the floor schedule by early July at the latest for a July vote to become realistic.

Galaxy said it could raise the probability to more than 60 percent again if a floor schedule is made public within the next two weeks. If no schedule is announced even by mid-July, it said the estimate could be cut further.

Other legislative priorities for Senate leaders are also a burden. Major pending issues include reauthorisation of Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act and handling of the fiscal 2027 National Defense Authorization Act, and negotiations have become more complicated as President Donald Trump has recently delayed signing a bipartisan housing bill and called for priority processing of the SAVE bill.

Disputes over the bill’s content also remain. The biggest variable is ethics rules. In the Senate Banking Committee, an amendment proposed by Senator Chris Van Hollen aimed at preventing conflicts of interest was voted down 11 to 13. But some Democratic senators, including Ruben Gallego and Cory Booker, continue to condition their support on establishing stronger ethics standards.

Counting votes is also not easy. Thorn cited the possibility of at least two Republican senators opposing the bill, including Josh Hawley and Rand Paul, and said bipartisan Democratic cooperation would be essential for passage in that case. Some lawmakers also say further revisions are needed to provisions protecting blockchain developers.

Galaxy also laid out conditions that could lift the odds of passage again. It said an agreement on a merged bill between the Banking and Agriculture committees, resolution of differences over ethics rules and developer protection provisions, and a Senate leadership commitment to complete floor action in July would be needed.

The CLARITY bill is currently on the Senate’s legislative calendar, but the actual vote schedule remains blank. In the market, the biggest turning point is seen as what schedule Senate leaders present in the coming weeks, which could determine the direction of the U.S. cryptocurrency regulatory framework.