XRP has broken lower out of a long-running low-volatility range, bringing a move below $1 into focus as a technical target.

U.Today, a blockchain media outlet, reported on Monday that the Bollinger Bands on XRP's monthly chart, which had been tightly compressed throughout the first quarter, have recently widened to the downside. It said the lower band range of $0.92 to $0.96 has emerged as a new price reference line.

XRP has fallen 16.98 percent in June, and the decline has shifted the market's reference points. The midline 20-month simple moving average remains at $2.06, but selling has taken control after XRP broke below that level. The market is now watching how long buying demand can hold below $1, before any discussion of a return to $2.

Technical signals suggest the decline is more an extension of the trend than a short-term shakeout. A bearish 흐름 that began early in the year has not broken in the second quarter, and the downside break came after monthly volatility fell to a record low. Some in the market interpret the lower boundary as acting like a strong price magnet, pulling targets below $1.

The quarterly trend is also a burden. XRP had already lost more than a quarter of its value by the end of the first quarter and is extending a double-digit decline in the second quarter. An attempted rebound in April was largely erased by subsequent spring declines. Over the first half, the move has continued to the point that it could be described as one of the weakest stretches in recent years.

The broader market backdrop is also tilting bearish. A prolonged regulatory stalemate in the U.S. Senate over the Clarity bill is cited as a factor behind large investors reducing risk exposure. There is also talk of liquidity draining out in a systematic way. In that environment, the pace of outflows and whether support holds become more important than short-term rebounds in individual tokens.

For XRP bulls, the key remaining zone is support at $1.05 to $1.10. The area is described as a so-called "last line of defense," and steady inflows into spot XRP exchange-traded funds are cited as a factor preventing an immediate sharp drop. Net assets of the fund are currently moving in a range of about $1.35 billion to $1.45 billion.

The conditions are clear. If the June monthly candle closes below $1, a move to the Bollinger Band lower range of $0.92 to $0.96 is technically inevitable. The market must first check the depth of buy orders and the staying power of buyers below the $1 psychological line before talking about a return to $2.

June has historically not often been a month that delivers large gains for XRP buyers, and in the coming weeks the market's focus is expected to shift from rebound potential to where an actual bottom forms.