[Digital Today reporter Yoonseo Lee] An analysis said XRP has re-entered the lower band of the Gaussian Channel on a two-week basis, offering favorable risk-reward.

The Crypto Basic, a blockchain media outlet, reported on June 23 that XRP slid to $1.11 amid broad weakness in the crypto market, and its cumulative decline in June stood at 16.39 percent.

Market analyst Egrag Crypto viewed the current zone as an important technical point. XRP is again testing the lower boundary of the Gaussian Channel on the two-week chart, and the zone has previously served as a buying opportunity before major rallies, he said.

The key is the central line running through the middle of the channel. Egrag presented it as a major dividing point between an accumulation zone and a profit-taking zone. He noted that when XRP was below the line in the past, fear and opportunity coexisted, while after it moved above the line it often entered a strong expansion phase followed by sharp gains.

Based on this observation, Egrag set out 2 upside targets. The first is a scenario applying the average of past cycles. He estimated that in one cycle XRP rose about 330 percent above the central line, and in another cycle it gained about 200 percent. The average expansion of the 2 phases is about 265 percent, and applying that to the current structure yields an upside target close to $8.

He also presented a more conservative scenario. If XRP fails to reproduce momentum as strong as in past cycles, it reflects only 60 percent of the previous expansion. Assuming it achieves only 60 percent of a past cycle’s 200 percent rise implies about 120 percent upside, putting the target at $5.7.

By price action alone, XRP remains under bearish pressure. Still, Egrag called the current zone an "uncomfortable area" and assessed that historically it can be the most favorable risk-reward zone. He argued that instead of trying to pinpoint an exact bottom or chasing after a sharp rise, investors should focus on accumulating near the lower boundary and waiting for a recovery of the central line.

He stressed that the figures are not based on market speculation, but on past price action in which XRP posted large gains after reclaiming the central line. The condition for the upside targets is not a simple rebound but a renewed recovery of the central line.

The market watch point is also clear. Whether XRP breaks above the central line after confirming support at the Gaussian Channel’s lower band will determine the next trend. Egrag said meaningful profit-taking could be considered if XRP clearly moves above that level. If it fails to reclaim the central line, even the conservative target could be revised lower. The analysis starts from the retest of the lower band and the possibility of a repeat of past cycles, and the actual upside depends on whether the central line is recovered.

#XRP - Central Line Targets Are Not Random ( $5.7-$8): The Base: ▫️This projection starts from #XRP’s Central Line. ▫️This line has historically acted as the macro divider between accumulation and profit-taking zones. ▫️Below it: fear and opportunity. ▫️Above it: expansion… pic.twitter.com/Bj0Knfs5B4