Bitcoin slid into the $63,000 range despite easing Middle East-driven oil price jitters. On June 19 local time, blockchain media outlet CryptoSlate said bitcoin traded in the low $63,000s on June 18, down about 2 percent on the day.
Oil declines typically ease inflation worries and support risk assets. But the Federal Open Market Committee kept its target range for the benchmark interest rate at 3.50 to 3.75 percent on the same day while sending hawkish signals.
Nine of the 18 Federal Open Market Committee members expected at least one rate hike this year. In March, no member had expected an additional hike. Of those, 6 members pencilled in at least two 25-basis-point hikes. The Fed raised its year-end forecast for the personal consumption expenditures inflation rate to 3.6 percent from 2.7 percent, and said in its statement that inflation remains above its 2 percent goal.
The Fed also mentioned supply shocks including energy. It means it did not see the inflation problem as resolved by the recent oil decline alone. The dollar index rose to 100.80 after the Fed statement, the highest in a year, and fed funds futures priced a 68 percent chance of a September rate hike.
Normalisation in the Strait of Hormuz also remains uncertain. The shipping and insurance industries stayed cautious, and the Lloyd's Market Association saw it could take months to return to near-normal conditions. Mine-clearing operations in the strait have not been completed, and a 60-day memorandum of understanding also remains conditional.
In the end, markets on June 18 put more weight on dollar strength and the expected path of interest rates than on easing geopolitical tensions. It suggests downside pressure on bitcoin could continue if the Fed's tightening path does not change even as oil prices fall. This trend showed bitcoin was more sensitive to the Fed's rate path and dollar strength than to short-term positives such as falling oil prices.