Bitcoin’s CVDD model, a metric used to estimate long-term bottoms, pointed to around $48,000 as a potential downside level for this cycle.

On June 17, blockchain media outlet The Crypto Basic reported that investor loss pressure increased during Bitcoin’s recent pullback, and on-chain indicators began to send signals similar to past bottom zones.

Bitcoin briefly fell below $60,000 on June 5, dropping under the February low of $60,130. The price later returned to around $64,000, but the decline is seen as leaving a shift in market sentiment beyond a short-term shakeout.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr focused on the move in the adjusted sell-side risk ratio, SSRR, during the early-June downturn. The indicator entered the red zone for the first time since the previous cycle. SSRR compares the realised market capitalisation of Bitcoin supply in profit with supply in loss. The red zone means the value of coins in loss is approaching or exceeding the value of coins in profit.

Adler saw the change as reflecting rising stress among holders. He noted that entering the red zone does not confirm a bottom, but shows Bitcoin has moved from a period dominated by optimism to one with significant unrealised losses and increased caution. He also mentioned similar conditions appeared in 2019 and 2023, followed by a broader recovery phase.

The market is also watching the CVDD model as a more direct tool for estimating a bottom than SSRR. The model estimates Bitcoin’s long-term fundamental bottom by reflecting both the value of coins moved on-chain and holding periods. Adler explained it has historically been rare for Bitcoin’s price to close below the CVDD baseline for a meaningful period.

The CVDD baseline is currently put near $48,300. That is about a 25 percent gap from around $65,000, and the CVDD line has tended to rise gradually over time, lifting cycle bottoms as well.

Analyst Ali Martinez offered a similar view. On June 16, he said the last major bottom formed when the price reached the CVDD level, and that point became the starting point of a new bull market. He added that the same metric currently sits around $48,000.

The key question is whether Bitcoin can hold above the price zone where stress signals first emerged. A positive scenario is the price holding above the $60,000 area and SSRR gradually leaving the red zone. That would suggest supply in loss is shrinking and selling pressure is easing.

If Bitcoin is pushed to lower levels again and SSRR worsens further, market attention could quickly shift to the CVDD support zone around $48,000. Bitcoin has not yet fallen to that level in the current cycle. The next move therefore depends on whether $60,000 holds and whether supply trapped in loss begins to decline.

The last major Bitcoin $BTC market bottom formed when price reached the Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) level, marking the start of a new bull market. Today, that same metric sits around $48,000. https://t.co/uIDjVPWgo5 pic.twitter.com/ddTkpOgV8s