[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee] Concerns are growing that bitcoin could slide back to the $60,000 level after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) raised interest rates.

Cointelegraph, a blockchain media outlet, reported on Monday that the BOJ raised its short-term policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.0 percent. It is the highest level since 1995.

Bitcoin fell about 2.5 percent on the day from an intraday peak of $67,250. It is still holding on to gains made in June, but the market is treating the move as a signal of shrinking global liquidity rather than a short-term price adjustment.

The key is that Japan's rate hike could change funding conditions across risk assets. Japan has long supplied low-cost money to global markets on the back of ultra-low rates. When rates are low, trades that borrow yen cheaply to invest in risk assets such as stocks or cryptocurrencies are active, but the appeal of that structure diminishes as rates rise. If moves to reduce leveraged positions gather pace, assets such as bitcoin could face greater pressure.

Past trends also support such concerns. Over the 30 days after the most recent four BOJ rate hikes, bitcoin fell an average of 5.74 percent. After a hike in March 2024 it fell 5.59 percent, in July 2024 it dropped 10.89 percent and in January 2025 it slid 14.77 percent. The only exception was one case in December 2025. Bitcoin rose 8.31 percent over 30 days then, but the rebound came after a sharp drop from an October 2025 peak, raising the possibility it was already in an oversold state.

Applying that average decline to the current price level of around $66,500 points to about $62,700 as a first downside target. That is just above the $59,000 to $62,000 range cited on charts as a demand zone. If the pullback matches the July 2024 case, it would be $59,200, and if it widens to the January 2025 level, calculations suggest it could open the way to $56,700.

A larger correction is also being discussed. A chart shared by cryptocurrency analyst Gerla shows that, in correction phases that followed Japan's rate decisions since March 2024, bitcoin at times fell 26 to 38 percent. That would mean not a short-term dip but a mid-term correction.

Andre Dragosch (안드레 드라고슈), head of research at Bitwise Europe, noted that BOJ rate-hiking cycles have historically overlapped with periods of U.S. recessions. He cited the COVID-19 shock as a major exception. The remarks suggest Japan's tightening often emerges in the late stage of the global economic cycle, when inflation pressure has risen but liquidity supportive of risk assets could weaken.

Rising energy costs and inflation pressure left by Middle East-driven supply disruptions sit behind the latest hike. As a result, the market is watching the spillover effects of higher yen funding costs across global asset markets, rather than the bitcoin price itself.

In this environment, bitcoin's near-term path is expected to hinge on support in the low-to-mid $60,000 range and whether global risk appetite recovers. If Japan-led tightening leads to a contraction in leveraged investment, bitcoin could give back its recent rebound and again test the psychological support level of $60,000.

The reason why FinTwit is freaking out about this. BoJ rate hiking cycles historically coincided w/ US recessions. (only exception so far was Covid) pic.twitter.com/wUNamH8fD8