A shortage of memory semiconductors driven by expanding demand for artificial intelligence (AI) could act as a new inflation pressure, and its fallout could weigh on the bitcoin market in the short term, an analysis showed.

On June 16, blockchain media outlet CoinPost reported that Binance Research, in a recent report, pointed to memory semiconductors as a structural inflation factor alongside energy and food.

Binance said worries over rising energy prices have eased somewhat after a recent peace agreement between the United States and Iran, but another inflation pressure that the market is overlooking remains. It said that pressure stems from a surge in demand for memory semiconductors as AI infrastructure expands.

According to the report, AI data centres are absorbing large volumes of high-performance memory such as high-bandwidth memory (HBM), server DRAM and enterprise SSDs. By contrast, memory supplies for consumer devices such as smartphones and PCs are shrinking in relative terms. Binance said, "AI infrastructure is continuing to increase the share of high-performance memory such as HBM, server DRAM and enterprise SSDs."

The problem is that supply growth is failing to keep pace with rising demand. Binance projected that the shortage will not be resolved even if the industry expands production capacity by about 30 percent by 2027.

The analysis estimated a shortage of about 15 percent, or 58 million units, for PC memory. It also projected a shortfall of about 12 percent, or 134 million units, for smartphone memory. The DRAM market is expected to see a supply shortage of about 17 percent in 2026 and about 15 percent in 2027. The report also raised the possibility that an imbalance in NAND flash supply and demand could persist through 2028.

That is also tied to industry characteristics that make it hard to expand memory factories in a short time. A new production line typically takes more than 2 years from construction to equipment installation, certification and mass production.

Binance, however, said the memory shortage is unlikely to directly push up the consumer price index (CPI) by a large amount. That is because home appliances account for a limited share of consumer spending. The report estimated the impact of rising memory prices on the CPI at about 0.10 percentage points.

For companies, the situation is different. It said costs could rise in various forms, including higher cloud service costs, higher prices for electronic devices, product specification adjustments and longer replacement cycles. Binance pointed out that these supply constraints could also affect monetary policy.

If energy, food and semiconductor shortages occur at the same time, inflation pressure could last longer than expected, potentially delaying the U.S. Federal Reserve's timing for interest rate cuts. The report said, "A delay in rate cuts or the possibility of additional tightening could be a short-term headwind for liquidity-sensitive assets such as bitcoin."

It offered a different view for the longer term. If structural inflation driven by supply constraints persists, the purchasing power of fiat currencies could weaken, potentially boosting the investment appeal of scarce assets such as bitcoin and gold. Binance said, "In the short term it could weigh on the rate path, but in the long term it could spur hedging demand for digital assets."

Still, mixed signals are appearing in the market. JPMorgan said in a recent report that demand is slowing for "currency debasement hedge trades" using bitcoin and gold. It said outflows have recently been observed in investment products related to bitcoin and gold.

As a result, key variables for the bitcoin market have become how long supply-driven inflation will actually last and how much it will affect the Fed's rate path. Attention to related indicators is expected to grow, as the memory semiconductor shortage could shake not only the tech industry's cost structure but also liquidity conditions in the cryptocurrency market.