A forecast says bitcoin is more likely to extend additional correction and a long-term range-bound move than stage a sharp short-term rebound.

According to blockchain media outlet U.Today on June 15 local time, legendary trader Peter Brandt (피터 브란트) assessed, based on a weekly BTC/USD chart, that bitcoin could move within a downward channel for the time being.

Bitcoin is trying to hold the $65,200 to $66,000 range as tensions ease in the Middle East, but Brandt did not see it as an immediate signal of a turn higher. He also flatly denied a "bull flag" pattern interpretation raised by part of the market.

He dismissed that view as a "novice mistake". Under the classic technical analysis rules of Schabacker, Edwards and Magee, such a pattern should last no more than 6 to 8 weeks, but the current decline has already exceeded that, he said.

Brandt’s key point was that bitcoin is trapped in a clear down channel. On the chart, he viewed the price as being pressured by the 8-week and 18-week moving averages and confined within a clear downward price channel. He also marked in red the point where price broke down from a past sideways range, interpreting it as a key warning signal to buyers.

The ADX, a trend-strength indicator, also supported the bearish move. Citing an ADX reading of 28.27, Brandt saw sellers as still holding control. As a result, bitcoin could be pushed lower within this down corridor for some time, and a full-cycle bottom may not form before September or October 2026, the analysis said.

He maintained a long-term bullish scenario. Brandt presented an upper target for this cycle near $127,500, and saw the absolute multi-year floor at $24,825 per bitcoin. He assessed that a move toward a new all-time high (ATH) could only begin in earnest after a green mark confirming a break above the top of the down channel is seen.

The key is a reversal signal. Brandt saw that a "true breakout" above the top of the down channel must first be confirmed for a path to a new all-time high to open. He said a bullish turn can only be judged when an opposite-direction green signal appears on the chart.

As a result, the market’s focus narrows to whether bitcoin can break out of the down channel and when a bottom forms, rather than simply expectations of a short-term rebound. Holding the current support zone alone makes it hard to conclude a trend reversal, and the $127,500 target can return as the central scenario only if Brandt’s conditions are met.

Ultimately, the analysis said bitcoin’s next move depends more on whether it can exit the down channel than on holding the current support line. Even if a short-term rebound appears, the corrective move could continue if it fails to break technical resistance, and Brandt’s long-term upside target is also likely to gain persuasiveness only after a clear trend-reversal signal is confirmed.

There are few other markets that so neatly comply to understanding using classical charting principles as Bitcoin (Schabacker, Edwards, Magee) pic.twitter.com/LT1Hxztx23