A view that bitcoin (BTC) is more likely to test $50,000 again before reaching $100,000 is dominant on prediction market Kalshi.

U.Today, a blockchain media outlet, reported on June 12 that Kalshi traders are strongly pricing in a drop to $50,000 before bitcoin’s next major rise.

Kalshi data put the probability of bitcoin touching $50,000 before $100,000 at 69 percent. Despite some short-term recovery signals, market participants are placing more weight on further downside than a clear breakout.

The figure shows market caution over bitcoin’s next move. As attention grows over whether bitcoin will head lower or begin a sharp upside breakout, Kalshi traders chose the former. The outlet said the market sees a high chance bitcoin will test $50,000 again soon, a sign that sentiment is gradually turning more bearish.

$100,000 has been seen as a symbolic level in the bitcoin market. Expectations persisted for bitcoin to recover $100,000 after it traded near that level in November 2024, but traders are now sceptical it can regain it in the short term. Some are shifting to the view that it may be difficult to move above $100,000 again within this year.

The market has not turned fully pessimistic. Based on recent on-chain moves, some analysts are maintaining an optimistic view of bitcoin’s long-term trend. The outlet reported that “recent on-chain moves made analysts optimistic,” but said traders are more confident about a deeper correction in the short-term price path.

The price rebounded slightly over a day. After several days of a weak trend, bitcoin rose 1.87 percent over the past 24 hours to trade at $63,871. The outlet said bitcoin had “switched to the other side of the market” and posted a mild uptrend over the past day.

But the prevailing view is that the rebound alone does not confirm a shift in direction. Bitcoin has yet to fully regain upward momentum. Some expect the current move could be the start of a breakout, but Kalshi betting remains focused on the chance of another, larger price correction rather than a short-term rebound.

For now, market attention is expected to focus on whether bitcoin can sustain a rebound in the $60,000 range or move toward a retest of the $50,000 zone, as the prediction market outlook suggests. As a short-term rebound and long-term optimism coexist, more conservative judgement is carrying greater weight in the prediction market where real money is at stake.