Bitcoin briefly fell below $60,000 during the week before recovering to the $64,000 range. On June 14 local time, blockchain outlet CoinPost reported that the market sees Middle East developments and next week’s U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) outcome as key variables.

Earlier in the week, bitcoin’s price in won showed a heavy tone as Iran and Israel exchanged attacks. After both sides announced a halt to attacks, caution eased and the price rose to the week’s high. But the upswing did not continue as bitcoin in dollar terms stalled near $64,000.

In the new week, the Fed’s FOMC is seen as the biggest variable. Fed funds futures markets are pricing in about a 96 percent chance that rates will be left unchanged at the June meeting. As a result, market attention is focused less on the policy rate itself than on the statement, press conference and the quarterly Summary of Economic Projections (SEP).

This meeting will be the first at which the SEP is updated under Chair Kevin Warsh (케빈 워시). As Warsh has shown a sceptical stance toward forward guidance, the market is watching how he communicates at the press conference. If strategic ambiguity that avoids giving clear signals to the market intensifies, uncertainty over the policy outlook could grow and risk premiums could rise.

In the short term, whether bitcoin breaks above $64,000 is important. If bitcoin in dollar terms clearly moves above the $64,000 area, seen as resistance this week, perceptions of a short-term bottom could revive. If Warsh’s press conference leaves significant uncertainty, the upside for risk assets including bitcoin could be limited.

SpaceX, which listed on June 12, was also presented as a variable. If funds continue flowing into growth stocks, allocation to bitcoin could shrink in relative terms. Conversely, some analysis suggests that if pressure from fund outflows eases after the listing, it could support bitcoin on the downside. In fact, according to SpaceX’s S-1 registration statement filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission at the time of the listing, it was confirmed to hold 18,712 bitcoins. At current prices, the holding is worth more than $1.2 billion (about 1.8 trillion won).